NEC Podcasts

The NEC will be recording their luncheon speeches and making them available as podcasts.

You will find links to individual podcasts here, and on the Speaker's Links page. You can also subscribe to the podcasting series via the iTunes Music Store (for free) or via other podcatching services.

Need to know more about podcasts? See the NEC Podcast Frequently Asked Questions

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NEC #77: Employer Health Costs in a Global Economy

The United States spends more on health care than any other nation, but evidence shows that we are not getting our money's worth in terms of health outcomes. Moreover, many people remain uninsured. And there's that demographic time bomb as well. Soaring health care costs must be contained -- but how? Health economist Dr. Len Nichols will outline the problems as well as some possible solutions to tackle one of the most formidable challenges facing our nation. Recorded 11/14/2008
File Size 16 MB, Time 55:41 Listen

NEC#76: The Morning After the Morning After:  Outlook for the Budget

Noted fiscal policy expert Stan Collender returns to the NEC "the morning after the morning after" to talk about what the outcome of the elections means for fiscal policy and the budgetary outlook as the nation faces an unprecedented combination of short-term and long-term fiscal challenges. Recorded 11/6/2008.
File Size 18.6 MB; Time 1:04:50; Listen

NEC #75: "How Do Retirees Go About Cracking Open the Retirement Nest Egg?"

Sarah Holden, Investment Company Institute. With $4.5 trillion in defined contribution plans, $4.7 trillion in IRAs, and the Baby Boom generation headed into retirement, many observers wonder will this money be managed successfully. The Investment Company Institute (ICI) has a comprehensive research program to analyze Americans' financial activities surrounding retirement. Sarah Holden will share recent ICI household survey results that explore the accumulation and "decumulation" activities of IRA owners and recent retirees. Recorded 10/30/2008.
File Size 14.2 MB; Time 49:35 Listen

NEC #74: Futurecast: How Superpowers, Populations and Globalization will Change the Way You Live and Work

What will the world look like in the year 2020? How will the forces of globalization, aging societies and the rise of American dominance shape the future world order? How can economic policy prepare for the monumental changes to come? Former Undersecretary of Commerce for Economic Affairs Robert Shapiro will address these critical issues, drawing on his recent book by the same title.
File Size: 17.3 MB; Time 1:00:36 Listen

NEC #73: Challenges of Monetary Policymaking in Emerging Economies

Governor Zdenek Tuma of the Czech National Bank will place monetary management in the context of transition to capitalism, disinflation, financial system development and privatization, fast economic growth, and European integration. Such a multitude of constraints and objectives calls for policies that often are a balancing act among competing priorities. Add to this the sometimes fragile institutions and inflation expectations that are difficult to gauge, and the governor’s job emerges as particularly daunting. Members will have a unique opportunity to query a respected head of a successful central bank. Recorded 10/9.
File Size: 16.3 MB; Time 57:01   Listen

NEC #72: A Debate on the Economic Policies of John McCain and Barack Obama

Douglas Holtz-Eakin, McCain Campaign and former CBO Director; Jared Bernstein, Economic Policy Institute and informal advisor to the Obama Campaign. Recorded 9/23.
File Size19.6 MB; Time 1:08:27 Listen

NEC #71: The Next Round of the Trade and Wages Debate

Josh Bivens, Economic Policy Institute. The debate over the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) sparked a long literature on the impact of international trade on American wage inequality. This debate is sometimes characterized as having concluded that trade could not be a major factor in explaining the large increase in wage inequality observed in the 1980s. This presentation argues (1) this characterization is too sanguine about the findings of this first round, and, (2) findings from this first round are now clearly obsolete, as trade flows with poorer trading partners have accelerated in importance over the past 15 years. It provides new estimates for trade's impact on wage inequality, and, explores some new issues being raised in this debate.
File Size 17.2 MB Time 1:00:11 Listen

NEC #70: Financial Shock

Mark Zandi, Chief Economist, Moody's Economy.com. The subprime mortgage loan shock is arguably at the heart of what has become the most severe US financial crisis since the Great Depression. Based on his new book on the topic, Mark Zandi will address how mortgage lenders, investment bankers, builders, regulators, and the Fed caused one of the most devastating global economic disasters in history and what can be done to prevent the next financial crisis.
File Size 14.9 MB Time 52:04 Listen

NEC #69: The Surge in Fuel and Food Prices: Macroeconomic Impact and Policy Responses

Dr. Thomas Hebling, Advisor, Research Department, International Monetary Fund. There is no question that rising commodity prices are putting a strain on the global economy. Dr. Helbling will present the IMF's recent findings with respect to the impact of higher food and fuel prices on inflation, balance of payments, fiscal positions and living standards in a number of developed and developing countries -- and what policies are best (and worst) suited to respond to the situation.  
File Size 16.1 MB Time 56:07 Listen

NEC #68: Update on the US Economy

Dr. Donald Marron, Member, Council of Economic Advisers, presents an update on the outlook for the US economy. Recorded 7/31/2008.
File Size 16.5 MB Time 57:29 Listen

NEC #67: Fiscal Policy in the Presidential Election

Maya MacGuineas, President, Committee for a Fiscally Responsible Budget, will discus the major tax and spending policies from the campaigns and their fiscal impact, as well as fiscal policy in the 2008 Presidential Campaign. Recorded 7/24/08.
File size 17.7 MB Time 1:01:51 Listen

NEC #66: "The Economic Outlook

Dr. Jeffrey Lacker, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, discusses the challenges facing the economy and Federal Reserve actions taken during a time of market uncertainty. Recorded 7/8/2008.
File Size 14.7 MB Time 51:13 Listen

NEC #65: The Price Isn't Right: The FY 2009 Budget Initiative to Modernize the CPI

Michael Horrigan, Associate Commissioner, Office of Prices and Living Conditions, Bureau of Labor Statistics
Discussant: Bill Wascher, Associate Director, Division of Research and Statistics, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve. Recorded 6/26/2008.
File Size 17.1 MB Time 59:51 Listen

NEC #64: New Evidence on Trends in Income Mobility

Gerald Auten, U.S. Department of Treasury, Office of Tax Analysis, looks at findings from recent work based on IRS data. Recorded 6/19/2008.
File Size 12.8 MB Time 43:55 Listen

NEC#63: Ecological Economics- The Science of Sustainability

Sabine O'Hara, Executive Director of the Council for International Exchange of Scholars, talks about "Ecological Economics- The Science of Sustainability. Recorded June 12, 2008.
File Size18.3 MB Time 1:03:43 Listen

NEC #62: Annual NABE President's Lecture, Credit Market Developments: Implications for the Global Economy

Credit and broader financial markets have undergone substantial innovation in recent years.  Ellen Hughes-Cromwick, President of NABE and Chief Economist of Ford Motor Company, will explore some dimensions of these financial developments and their implications for the global economy.
File Size 12.5 MB Time 54:43 Listen

NEC #61: In Over Our Heads? The State of Household Balance Sheets

Charles Steindel, Senior Vice President, Research and Statistics Group, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, looks at trends in household wealth and debt following all the turmoil in financial markets. Recorded May 29, 2008.
File Size 13.9 MB Time 1:00:47 Listen

NEC #60: This Time Is Different: A Panoramic View of Eight Centuries of Financial Crisis

Carmen Reinhart, Professor, University of Maryland School of Public Policy, looks at the Big Picture - Eight Centuries worth of financial crises. Recorded May 23, 2008.
File Size 14.9 MB Time 1:05:11 Listen

NEC #59: Getting Serious about Renewing and Modernizing Public Education

Cynthia Brown, Director of Education Policy, Center for American Progress looks at various educational reform measures. Recorded May 15, 2008.
File size 14.6 MB Time 1:04:01 Listen

NEC #58: Where is Europe Heading?”

Jean-Paul Betbeze, Chief Economist, Credit Agricole SA gives a talk on the future direction of the Euro and the European economy. This talk was given in conjunction with the Embassy of France. Recorded May 8, 2008.
File size 17.8 MB Time 1:00:58 Listen

NEC #57: NAFTA at 14: Why the Uproar?

Gary Hufbauer, Senior Fellow, Peterson Institute for International Economics. Fourteen years after it has been enacted, NAFTA has become a hot campaign issue in this Presidential election. Gary Hufbauer of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, looks at the data and the issues. Recorded May 1, 2008.
File size: 20.0 MB. Time 58:16. Listen

NEC#56: Strings Attached? The Economics and Politics of Sovereign Wealth Funds

Tim Adams, Managing Director, The Lindsey Group. Global leaders continue to debate the pros and cons of investment activity by Sovereign Wealth Funds (SWFs). These large, government-owned pools of capital are gaining prominence in countries such as China, Saudi Arabia, Russia and Kuwait. SWFs have grown tremendously in recent years and currently manage about $2.5 trillion. Former Under Secretary of Treasury for International Affairs, Tim Adams, brings an insider's perspective from both the policy and private capital worlds to many of the issues. He will shed light on the current global policy debate, including possible regulation and domestic political constraints. Recorded 4/24/08.
File size: 15.5 MB. Time 54:25. Listen

NEC #55: Comparisons of Multifactor Productivity in the Transportation Industries

Anthony Apostolides, Department of Transportation. Measuring and comparing productivity in services has been perennially difficult. It is particularly complicated in transportation, where the capital contribution is vital. The presentation will showcase trends and comparisons of multifactor productivity since 1987 across several dimensions: among various transportation modes, and between transportation and other sectors of the economy. The methodology is based on the Tornqvist Index. Recorded 4/17/2008
File Size 15.5 MD Time 54:03 Listen

NEC #54: Restructuring Financial Regulation

Randal Quarles, Managing Director, The Carlyle Group. The Treasury Department is scheduled to issue a report that will set an agenda for regulatory reform legislation over the next several years. There is widespread agreement that financial regulation is overly complex, inefficient, and prone to arbitrage and coverage gaps. Until recently, change was considered impossible. However, distress in the US financial sector has created a political environment in which fundamental regulatory restructuring may in fact be possible. With the release of the Treasury Department report, both industry and Congress are preparing to engage seriously on the issue. What should be the objective of such a reform? Should the focus be on the institutional structure or on regulatory mandate? What is the proper balance between the benefits of regulatory competition and the costs of regulatory fragmentation? Randal Quarles, former Under Secretary of the Treasury who led the Treasury Department's effort in the coordination of the President's Working Group on Financial Markets, addresses these issues. Recorded 4/3/2008.
File Size 13.2 MB Time 57:45 (MP3)

 

NEC #53: The Mortgage and Housing Market Outlook

Frank Nothaft, Chief Economist, Freddie Mac. The housing market is undergoing its sharpest decline in more than 50 years. Mortgage finance has been shaken by widespread default on subprime and nontraditional loans. Economists only now begin to probe for the depth of the crisis as new data come out. When will the mortgage sector reach bottom? What will the next two years look like? Frank Nothaft, one of the most knowledgeable economists on the mortgage and housing market, discusses these issues. Recorded 3/27/08.
File Size: 14.0 MB Time: 1:01:21 (MP3)

NEC #52: “How Should We Treat R & D Expenditures in National Accounts? New Thinking from the BEA”

Carol A. Robbins, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Department of Commerce. In the U.S. national accounts, research and development expenditures (R & D) are treated as expense for business and as consumption for government and non-profits. As part of its work to improve the measurement of intangibles in the economy, the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis is developing supplementary estimates known as satellite accounts. Satellite accounts show the impact that capitalized R & D expenditures would have on the various aggregates of the U.S. national accounts. The presentation touches upon measurement issues and provides tentative estimates of impact on saving and investment for 13 sectors of the economy. Recorded 3/20/08.
File Size 12.2 MB Time: 52:57 (MP3)

NEC #51: "Measuring Innovation in the 21st Century Economy"

Under Secretary of Commerce Cynthia Glassman will explain the findings of the recently-released Advisory Group Report on Measuring Innovation in the 21st Century Economy. The United States is more than 75 percent wealthier in terms of real GDP per capita today than it was 30 years ago. Innovation, the major driver of productivity gains behind the growth in real wealth, is the key factor in this trend. However, because innovation has been difficult to understand and measure, policies to foster it have so far been limited. The new report recommends steps that should be taken to measure innovation. Dr. Steve Landefeld, Director of the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis, and Joseph Kennedy, Chief Economist, will share the podium to discuss implementation of the report.Recorded 3/13/08
File Size 11.6 MB Time: 50:39 (MP3)

NEC #50: "The Economics of Renewable Energy"

Hermann Scheer, Member of the German Parliament and Chairman of the World Council for Renewable Energy (WCRE). Dr. Scheer is one of the major world figures in renewable energy policy. The British newspaper The Guardian recently named him as "one of the 50 people who could save the planet". Dr. Scheer was a force behind the adoption of Germany's revolutionary National Renewable Energy Act, which provided a major boost for German industries specializing in renewable energy technologies. Solar energy production and use has accelerated and currently provides an estimated 3% of Germany's energy - remarkable in a climate not known for its year-round sunshine. Our prominent speaker is also a prolific author, whose most recent books include "Energy Autonomy: The Economic, Social and Technological Case for Renewable Energy" and "The Solar Economy: Renewable Energy for a Sustainable Global Future". Recorded 3/6/08
File Size 19.2 MB. Time 1:23:31 (MP3)

NEC #49: “The Economic Report of the President”

The Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors, Ed Lazear, presents the 2008 Economic Report of the President, shedding light on the key analysis and findings of one of the Administration's most important economic documents of the year. Recorded 2/28/08.
File Size 13.1 MB, Time 45:35 (MP3)

NEC #48 Technical difficulties are delaying the podcast of Rakesh Kochhar, "U.S. Immigration: Demographics and the Workplace"

NEC #47: US Productivity Growth is Slower, Europe's is Faster: What Does this Tell Us?

Martin Baily, Senior Fellow, The Brookings Institution. Since the mid 1990s, we have been accustomed to seeing rapid productivity growth in the US, fueled, it is said, by high-tech investment. Europe has been slow to adopt new technologies, has rigid labor markets and has had slow growth. Recently, however, there has been a role reversal. Is this cyclical or does the European economic model work better than we thought? Martin Baily, Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors from 1999-2001, will present the findings of his recent analysis. Recorded 2/14/2008.
File Size 19.9 MB; Time 57:43. (MP3)

NEC #46: “The Credit Crunch: The Impact on the Economy ”

Vincent Reinhart, Resident Scholar, American Enterprise Institute. Financial markets remain squeezed by a lack of capital, uncertainty over the extent of subprime-related losses and where they are, and the Fed's ability to understand the nature of the crisis and take appropriate action. Vincent Reinhart, who, until recently, served as secretary and economist of the Federal Open Market Committee and Director of the Fed's Division of Monetary Affairs, will give his take on the credit crunch and evaluate the Fed's handling of the situation. Recorded 2/8/2008.
File Size 19.8 MB; Time 57:45. (MP3)

NEC #45: "CBO's 2008 Budget & Economic Outlook"

CBO Director Peter Orszag discusses the Congressional Budget Office's new 2008 Budget and Economic Outlook, the annual report that kicks off the congressional budget process each year.  He  walks through the agency's newest set of baseline budget projections and explain what path CBO analysts believe the economy will take in 2008 and beyond. Dr. Orszag's presentation of the CBO report comes a few days ahead of President Bush's scheduled submission to Congress of his FY 2009 budget proposal.  Recorded 1/31/2008.
File Size: 16.6 MB. Time 57:41. (MP3)

NEC #44: “Recession or Soft Landing? The 2008 US Economic Forecast”

Laurence H. Meyer, Macroeconomic Advisers, looks at the impact of the ongoing housing market correction and the turmoil in credit and financial markets. Will this push the US economy into recession, or can it somehow still achieve a "soft landing" in 2008? Former Fed Governor Larry Meyer will present his up-to-date forecast, complete with insights into future Federal Reserve policy.
Recorded 1/24/08.
File Size: 15.4 MB. Time: 53:35.
MP3 

NEC #43: “What Do Unions Want from Fringe Benefits?”

The domestic automobile industry has been buffeted by seismic changes in the last few years.  Companies and unions have responded by changing the very nature of the employer-employee contract. The extent to which this stabilizes employment and market share remains to be seen, but its consequences extend well beyond one industry. Alan Reuther, the nephew of Walter Reuther, discusses a few of the radical provisions in the new UAW contracts (such as VEBAs or Voluntary Employee Benefit Associations and two-tiered wage structures) and what these mean for the labor market. Recorded 1/10/2008.
Time: 51:27. File size: 14.8 MB (MP3)

NEC #42: Can Consumer-Directed Health Care Improve the Quality of Health Care?

Tony Lo Sasso, Associate Professor of Economics, University of Illinois-Chicago. Dr. Lo Sasso discusses whether the rise in Health Savings Accounts has begun to have a tangible impact on how people purchase health care and, in turn, whether such a change can improve health care. Recorded 12/20/2007.
Time: 1:06:28. File Size: 19.1 MB. (MP3)

NEC Podcast #41: Should Corporate Income Mirror the Income Reported for Tax Purposes?

Michelle Hanlon, Associate Professor of Accounting, University of Michigan. A common complaint made about corporate accounting is that any resemblance between the profit reported to the government for tax purposes and what is shown to shareholders is merely a coincidence. While numerous countries have made steps to make these two statements resemble one another, the U.S. has thus far resisted any urge to do the same, and Dr. Hanlon believes that it is probably for the best.  She will explain why the “book-tax conformity” movement should die an ignominious death. Recorded 12/13/07
Time: 48:15. File Size: 13.9 MB. (MP3)

NEC Podcast #40: The Conspiracy of Ignorance About Oil: A Wall Street Perspective

Paul Sankey is a managing director on the highly regarded Deutsche Bank oil team on Wall Street. He covers 36 major (and minor) oil stocks and MLPs. He was previously an oil consultant with Edinburgh consultancy Wood Mackenzie, and started his career at the International Energy Agency in Paris. Recorded December 6, 2008.
Time: 59:00. File Size 16.9 MB. (MP3)

NEC Podcast #39: The Dormant Commerce Clause and the Balkanization of the Municipal Bond Market

Alan D. Viard, Resident Scholar, American Enterprise Institute. The Supreme Court will soon hear arguments in Davis v. Kentucky Department of Revenue.  This case has potentially significant implications for capital markets and fiscal matters.  Dr. Viard looks at the key issue in the case, in which plaintiffs content that Kentucky violates the Dormant Commerce Clause (DCC) of the Constitution by granting a selective exemption favoring within-state holdings of municipal bonds over interstate holdings.  He argues that the challenged selective state income tax exemption for home-state municipal bonds functions as a trade barrier in the municipal bond market, similar to an import tariff.  In his view, because the selective exemption has balkanized the municipal bond market and harmed investors, the exemption should be struck down as an obstruction of interstate commerce. Recorded November 29, 2007.
Time: 57:44. File size 16.9 MB. (MP3)

NEC Podcast #38: Productivity and Economic Development

Bill Lewis, Former managing partner McKinsey Global Institute and Author of "The Power of Productivity." Mr. Lewis’ acclaimed book demonstrated that the key to a country’s economic development lies in adopting policies that foster productivity growth, and that allowing competition in the retail market is the best way to achieve high levels of productivity.
Time: 1:05:33. File Size 19.2 MB. (MP3)

NEC Podcast #37: The Tyranny of the Market - Why You Can't Always Get What You Want

Joel Waldfogel, Ehrenkranz Family Professor and Chair, The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania. In our continuing attempt to feature thoughtful speakers from beyond the Beltway, the NEC features well-known and highly respected economist Joel Waldfogel from The Wharton School  at the University of Pennsylvania discussing his new book “The Tyranny of the Market:  Why You Can’t Always Get What You Want”.  Dr. Waldfogel looks at the long-held view by economists that markets rather than government should be relied upon to decide a wide range of questions.  He argues that, with markets, you can’t always get what you want.
Time: 1:02:04. File Size 21.4 MB. (MP3)

NEC Podcast #36 : “The Tax Code We Deserve: What the Inevitable Reform of 2010 Should Look Like”

Jason Furman, Director of the Hamilton Project and Senior Fellow, The Brookings Institution and Kevin Hassett, Director of Economic Studies, American Enterprise Institute. Preview the tax policy debate in next year’s Presidential election and beyond.  Two of the most influential economists in the policy arena, coming from different sides of the political aisle, debate and discuss the changes to the tax code that a new Administration will most likely address. Recorded November 1, 2007.
Time: 1:05:50. File Size 18.9 MB. (MP3)

NEC Podcast #35: "The Myth of the Rational Voter"

Bryan Caplan, George Mason University. As teachers, economists have long assumed that their students start with serious misconceptions about economics, and tried to correct them.  As researchers, however, economists assume that voters correctly understand economics, at least on average.  Dr. Caplan argues that the teachers are right and the researchers are wrong. Recorded October 25, 2007.
Time: 55:11. File size 15.7 MB. (MP3)

NEC Podcast #34: "Politico-Economic Determinants of American Trade Policy Attitudes"

Michael Hoffman, Government Accountability Office. Voting behavior and constituent attitudes are central to the process of trade policy determination. Examining the demographic and economic variables that are associated with attitudes toward various trade policies can provide some insight into the public perception of globalization, and the political response to those perceptions. Using detailed response and demographic data from the Program on International Policy Attitudes survey *Americans on Globalization, Trade, and Farm Subsidies* the speaker assess a number of potential determinants of trade policy attitudes. Educational attainment is most clearly associated with pro-trade attitudes, and party affiliation suggests a certain malleability of opinion on trade issues. In addition, there is substantial variation in the determinants of trade policy attitudes across policy variables. Recorded October 11, 2007.
Time: 1:06:30; File Size 19.6 MB (MP3)

NEC Podcast #33: “Social Security and Marginal Returns to Work Near Retirement”

Andrew Biggs, Deputy Commissioner, Social Security Administration. Some analysts have suggested that longer work lives may improve retirement preparation in light of increased life expectancies and lower saving and pension coverage. Social Security levies one of the largest taxes on working households and provides one of the largest sources of income to retirees, and so the interaction between its tax and benefit formulas can affect incentives to remain in the workforce at older ages. Using the Social Security Administration’s MINT (Modeling Income in the Near Term) model, which utilizes matched SIPP data (Survey of Income and Program Participation sponsored by the Census Department) and Social Security earnings records, Dr. Biggs, the number two at the Social Security Administration, presents work calculating the marginal return paid to an additional year of employment at the end of the individual’s work life.   Dr. Biggs also looks at various policy changes designed to improve incentives to work under Social Security. Recorded 10/3/2007.
Time 1:00:45; File Size 20.8 MB (MP3)

NEC Podcast #32: “Health Policy:  What We Think We Know That Just Isn’t So; What We Don’t Want to Know; What We Need to Know; and Where We Ought to Go”

Tom Miller, Senior Fellow, American Enterprise Institute. Formerly a senior health economist for the Joint Economic Committee, Mr. Miller is now studying health care policy and regulation for AEI. Slideshow available. Recorded 9/27/2007.
Time: 57:01; File size: 19.6 MB (MP3)

NEC Podcast #31: “Building Automatic Solvency into U.S. Social Security: Insights from Sweden and Germany”

James C. Capretta, Fellow, Ethics and Public Policy Center. Although Social Security reform appears to be off of the national agenda for now, real funding problems remain for America's popular retirement program that policymakers need to address. In recent years, both Germany and Sweden have been able to put in place innovative approaches to solving pressing financial crises in their pay-as-you-go pension systems. Ideally, U.S. policymakers will reach a consensus on Social Security solvency reforms. Sweden and Germany have shown that it is possible and desirable to put in place provisions that can automatically self-correct underfunding of pay-as-you-go pension systems. Mr. Capretta will discuss these national proposals. Recorded 9/20/2007
Time: 55:43; File size: 19.1 MB (MP3)

NEC Podcast #30: “Intelligence and National Economic Performance”

Garett Jones, Assistant Professor, George Mason University. A nation's average IQ score has an extremely robust relationship with long-term economic performance.  At the same time, large differences in IQ predict only small differences in wages within countries.  Thus, intelligence appears to matter more for groups than for individuals.  Why is this so?  Dr. Jones will explore two possibilities: that an intelligent workforce is better at adopting frontier technology; or that smarter citizens are better at cooperating in non-market settings. Recorded 9/12/2007
Time 53:24; File Size 19.1 MB (MP3)

NEC Podcast #29: “U.S. Productivity: Past, Present and Future”

Robert D. Atkinson, Ph.D., President, Information Technology and Innovation Foundation. Over the last decade, U.S. productivity growth rebounded to post-World War II levels, bringing with it faster economic growth and increased prosperity. However, productivity growth has lagged recently. Rob Atkinson, noted technology expert and well-respected adviser to state and national policymakers, will discuss what we know about the sources of the post-1995 productivity pick-up, what is happening currently with productivity growth, and possible trends in productivity growth over the next decade. He will also discuss why boosting productivity growth is the central economic challenge of our time and why and how public policies can spur productivity so that all Americans benefit. Recorded 9/7/07
Time: 33:33; File Size 19.7 MB (MP3)

NEC Podcast #28: "The US Economic Outlook"

Dr. Edward Lazear, Chair, Council of Economic Advisors returns to the NEC podium to discuss the U.S. economic outlook, with emphasis on the following key indicators: real GDP, consumer sentiment, housing, inflation, labor market trends (particularly wage growth and the unemployment rate), energy issues, and entitlement spending. Slideshow available. (To improve the audio quality of audience questions, the questions were repeated and included in the finished podcast.) Recorded 7/24/2007.
Time 34:35. File size 12 MB (MP3)

NEC Podcast #27: "The AMT: Why it Matters and Why it is a Hard Fix"

Leonard Burman, Senior Fellow, Urban Institute and Director, Tax Policy Center. With a perceived mandate from the 2006 election, a main priority of the Democrats was to address the individual Alternative Minimum Tax (AMT) with its higher taxes and mind-numbing complexity. Mr. Burman will discuss the various complexities and vagaries of this politically hot topic and its effect on taxpayer decisions concerning wealth. He will examine some reform options available in the new world of PAYGO and the political environment that might make reform possible. Slideshow available for NEC members. Recorded 7/19/2007.
Time: 1:06:17. File Size 22.8 MB (MP3)

NEC Podcast #26: "The Federal Burden for Health Care Spending"

In his first NEC appearance as CBO Director, Peter Orszag outlines the critical health care problems facing the country and how Congress is examining them. He discusses the fact that rising health care costs and their consequences for federal health insurance programs constitute the nation’s central fiscal challenge. He also describes how rising costs represent a central issue for employers, who sponsor most private health insurance coverage; for patients; for enrollees; and for taxpayers, who ultimately bear the costs of health insurance and health care. Recorded July 18, 2007.
Time 59:52. File Size 20.6 MB. (MP3)

NEC Podcast #25: "Private Markets, Risk and the Housing Market Correction"

Dr. John Silvia, Chief Economist of Wachovia Corporation is a noted financial markets expert, chief economist of one of the largest US financial services holding companies and former top Capitol Hill economist. He returned to Washington to discuss how private market risk assessments have changed in recent months and the extent and significance of the housing correction on the financial side of the economy. Slideshow available for NEC members. Recorded 7/12/2007.
Time: 1:00.20. File Size 20.7 MB (MP3)

NEC Podcast #24: “The Economics, Policy, and Politics of Poverty Reduction”

Jared Bernstein, Director of the Living Standards Program, Economic Policy Institute (EPI) and Mark Greenberg, Director, Poverty Task Force, Center for American Progress (CAP). This podcast is a very thoughtful review and analysis of poverty reduction trends and factors over the past 30 years, with recommendations on improving the current situation. In Part 1 of the two part talk, Jared Bernstein of the EPI, analyses factors in the persistent gap between movements in poverty rates and growth over the past 30 years. Based on his calculations, if the relationship between per capita GDP and the poverty rate had remained the same as in the period 1959 - 1973, the poverty rate would have fallen to well below 5% by the late 1980s. The official rate is presently 12.6%. Mr. Bernstein also discusses several alternative poverty rate measures. He looks at the impact of demographic and education changes on family poverty rates plus the effects of real low wage growth, productivity and unemployment. Details of his presentation are provided in his NEC slideshow and in the EPI flagship publication, the State of Working America, 2006/07 (http://www.stateofworkingamerica.org). In Part 2 of the talk, Mark Greenberg of CAP discusses policy recommendations for reducing poverty. He draws upon CAP's Poverty Task Force's report, "From Poverty to Prosperity: A National Strategy to Cut Poverty in Half " http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2007/04/poverty_report.html. Based on modeling by the Urban Institute, he highlights effects of key Task Force recommendations on poverty reduction. According to the Urban Institute work, if four specific policies were adopted, 9 million less people would be in poverty, the number of people living in extreme poverty (under 50% of the poverty line) would be lowered by 2 million, and the poverty rate would be reduced to 9.1%, a record low. The impact would be particularly strong on reducing child poverty, and would affect all races. The policies would include an increase in the minimum wage, an increase in the EITC, making the Child Tax Credit fully refundable, and increasing the Child and Dependent Care Tax Credit. Recorded 6/24/07.
Time: 1:08:28. File size 23.6 MB. (MP3)

NEC Podcast #23: The New Census

Dr. Cynthia Glassman returns to the NEC podium in her new capacity as Under Secretary for Economic Affairs in the Department of Commerce.  She will give an overview of the American Community Survey, the new nationwide survey which will replace the long form of the decennial census in future censuses and which will provide data every year.  (The long form is the part of the decennial census which obtains demographic, housing, social and economic information from a 1-in-6 sample of households.)  She will also provide information about preparations for the 2010 decennial count of residents in the United States. Recorded 6/7/2007.
Time: 51:55. File size 17.8 MB (MP3)

NEC Podcast #22: Investor Disclosure: What Have We Learned

Brian Reid, Chief Economist, The Investment Company Institute. Given the interest in disclosure at the SEC, the Department of Labor and elsewhere for mutual funds inside and outside 401(k) plans, Dr. Reid makes a timely presentation about investor disclosure.  The view that more is better seems to be losing ground to more selective and tailored disclosure for the retail investor. Dr. Reid will summarize findings from ICI, the national association of US investment companies, and other research organizations about the types of information that investors use and how they want it presented.(Please note: the first five minutes have a low recording volume. )Recorded 5/31/2007.
Time: 53:47. File size 18.4 MB. (MP3)

NEC Podcast #21: The Economic Naturalist

Robert Frank, Professor, Management/Economics, Johnson School of Management, Cornell University. Why do the keypads on drive-up cash machines have Braille dots? Why are round-trip fares from Orlando to Kansas City higher than those from Kansas City to Orlando? Based on his just-released book, “The Economic Naturalist”, Dr. Frank will discuss how basic economic principles suggest plausible answers to a host of intriguing questions from everyday life. Drive-up ATM keypads have Braille dots, for example, because it’s cheaper to make the same machine for both drive-up and walk-up locations. And travelers from Kansas City to Orlando pay less because they are usually price-sensitive tourists with many choices of destination, whereas travelers from Orlando typically choose Kansas City for specific family or business reasons. Recorded 5/24/2007.
Time: 59:55. File size: 20.6 MB. (MP3)

NEC Podcast #20: Trade-Offs in Allocating Allowances for CO2 Emissions

Dr. Terry Dinan is a PhD. Economist at the Congressional Budget Office. In light of scientific evidence about the value of addressing climate change, Congress in considering legislation that would impose a cap-and-trade program to reduce carbon dioxide emissions. Such a program, like any other effort to reduce CO2 emissions, would impose costs on the economy. In addition, it would transfer significant amounts of income. She will discuss how key decisions about the design of the program would affect both the overall cost plus the distribution of that cost among households in different income categories. A slideshow is available. Recorded 5/17/2007.
Time: 53:34. File size: 24.5 MB (MP3)

NEC Podcast #19: Immigration

Steven Camarota, Director of Research at The Center for Immigration Studies, looks at trends in immigration, in illegal immigration, and their economic effects. This podcast was held in conjunction with the Society of Government Economists. Recorded 5/16/2007.
Time: 55:13. File Size:25.2 MB (MP3)

NEC Podcast #18: The Incredible Shrinking Banking Industry

Carl Tannenbaum, the President of NABE and chief economist of LaSalle Bank in Chicago looks at theprofound changes in the banking industry. What has been the impact on asset markets ?  Is risk underpriced now ?  (Note: LaSalle Bank is an $115 billion banking organization based in Chicago.  It is part of a global network, as a subsidiary of one of the world's largest banks, the Dutch ABN AMRO.  The NEC is NABE's local chapter.) Recorded 5/11/2007.
Time: 58:04. File Size 19.9 MB (MP3)

NEC Podcast #17: The Promise of Progressive Cost Consciousness in Health Care Reform

Jason Furman is the Director of the Hamilton Project at Brookings, recently established by a group of former policymakers (including former Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin), academics and business representatives. He will discuss key economic issues in health care reform, including how more effective forms of cost sharing (income-related cost sharing, for example) could restrain health spending, improve the effectiveness of health spending, and insulate families from major financial risks. Slideshow (NEC members only) Recorded 5/10/07.
Time: 47:58, File Size 16.5 MB (MP3)

NEC Podcast #16: There’s A Reason They’re Called Subprime

David Wyss, Chief Economist of Standard and Poors. Subprime mortgage holders are beginning to default. These mortgages are risky, and Standard and Poors had anticipated a rise in foreclosures and delinquencies.  Losses in the 2006 vintage are expected to exceed the 5.5 percent loss rate of the 2000 vintage, previously the worst performance. Housing largely escaped the 2001 recession, so this is the first significant downturn since 1991-92.  Mr. Wyss will discuss his view that the real risk is however legislative: if Congress or state legislatures try to change the rules in response to these problems, they risk damaging the housing sector. Recorded 5/4/2007.
Time: 56:15, File Size 19.3 MB (MP3)

NEC Podcast #15: Prospects for the Indian Economy

Saumitra Chaudhuri is a Member of the Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister of India, and Economic Advisor to ICRA, an Indian rating agency associated with Moody’s. This is a rare opportunity to hear a leading expert discuss the prospects for the Indian economy.  Mr. Chaudhuri has been a member of the Prime Minister’s Advisory Council since January 2005 and is a well-known commentator on India.  The NEC continues to feature speakers on the global economy. Recorded 5/1/2007. Slideshow (NEC members only)
Time: 59:29; File Size 20.4 MB (MP3)

NEC Podcast #14: Prospects for Global Trade Talks and Trade Policy in the New Congress

This special edition NEC Podcast was recorded at the NABE Washington Policy Conference. It features Jeffrey Schott of the Peterson Intstitute for International Economics, and looks at the prospects for global trade talks, and what will happen to trade policy with the new Congress. Recorded 3/13/2007.
Time: 47:40. File Size 22 MB (MP3)

NEC Podcast #13: The Euro Area: Recovery and Reform?

Servaas Deroose, Director, Macroeconomy of the euro area and the EU for the European Commission’s Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs (Brussels). Euro area growth has picked up more than expected. In Washington as part of the high-level European Commission delegation attending the IMF’s spring meetings, Mr. Deroose discussed the ongoing recovery in the euro area. He addressed questions related to how solid the recovery is and how resilient growth would be if the US economy slowed. He also described the structural reforms that have been undertaken by Euro area countries in recent years as well as future reforms that need to be implemented. Commenting on his talk was Jorg Decressin of the IMF. Recorded 4/12/2007. Slideshows (NEC members only): Deroose and Decressin.
Time: 1:01:26. File Size 21.9 MB (MP3)

NEC Podcast #12: Mortgage Market Fault Line

Often quoted and relied upon for his forecasting savvy, Mark Zandi, the Chief Economist of Moody's Economy.com, discusses recent developments in the mortgage market and its outlook, with an emphasis on the subprime mortgage market.   He looks at factors in the deterioration of mortgage credit quality and problems in the mortgage market from a national and regional perspective.   Dr. Zandi puts the recent bankruptcy filing of New Century Financial Corporation, once a leading lender to the subprime market, in context.  He analyzes the impact the deterioration in mortgage quality is likely to have on the economy and considers policy steps, including by regulators, that might be usefully taken to address the present problems.  This presentation is a very informative discussion of the ins and outs of the subprime mortgage market problems.  It is useful for anyone interested in housing market and credit market trends, monetary policy, the US growth and employment outlook, regional growth trends, hedge funds, and steps that might be taken to manage the situation.   He also presents his view of the US economic outlook apart from the mortgage market challenge.  Recorded 4/5/2007. Slideshow (NEC members only).
Time: 54:44; File Size 18.8 MB (MP3)

NEC Podcast #11: Central Bank Governance

Ellen Meade, Professor of Economics at American University, and formerly on the Federal Reserve Board staff and on the faculty at the London School of Economics, presents a major paper at the NEC lunch.  Central banks have evolved significantly over the past two decades. She discusses developments in central bank independence and transparency across a wide range of countries, and briefly touches on some interesting aspects of decision-making by the FOMC and the European Central Bank’s (ECB) monetary policy committee. Her talk is based on work she has done with Christopher Crowe of the IMF which will appear in the fall edition of the Journal of Economic Perspectives.  The talk provides thoughtful analysis and comments useful for Fed watchers, European Central Bank (ECB) watchers, global financial market players (including hedge funds), and regulators in the US and elsewhere. Recorded 3/30/2007. Slideshow (NEC members only)
Time: 53:44; File Size 18.4 MB (MP3)

NEC Podcast #10: International Monetary Fund Reform: Mission Possible?

This podcast features Prakash Loungani, Division Chief, Policy Communications at the International Monetary Fund. The IMF has unleashed a reform strategy that, if successful, will equip the international organization with a new business model, a new income model and a new governance structure.  Is the strategy working?  In the run-up to the spring meetings of the IMF in April, Mr. Loungani discusses the current state-of-play and the outlook.Recorded 3/22/07. Slideshow (NEC members only)
Time: 1:00:33; File Size 20.7 MB (MP3)

NEC Podcast #9: Economic Analysis and Cost-Benefit Analysis: Substitutes or Complements?

Chester Spatt, Chief Economist, Securities and Exchange Commission, looks at "Economic Analysis and Cost-Benefit Analysis: Substitutes or Complements?" A recurring debate in Washington is the role of regulatory impact analyses.  How should the federal government assess the impact of proposed rulemakings? How should that assessment affect decision-making? In this presentation Chester Spatt draws upon his experiences as Chief Economist of the Securities and Exchange Commission to focus upon a central issue in the policy process--the potential importance of economic analysis to the regulatory process and the relationship to traditional cost-benefit analysis. He uses several examples to highlight different aspects of this broad theme. Recorded 3/15/07 Slideshow
Time: 54:47; File Size 12.8 MB. (MP3)

NEC Podcast #8 is temporarily off-line due to some technical issues.

NEC Podcast #7: A Briefing on the Congressional Outlook

Wendell Primus, Senior Economic Adviser to Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi, talks about the outlook for key issues in the new Congress.   Among his specialties, Dr. Primus is a recognized authority on budget and health care policy issues. Recorded 3/1/07
Time: 56:16. File Size 19.4 MB (MP3)

NEC Podcast #6: Central Bank Credibility : Myths and Realities

Brian Sack, Deputy Director, Monetary Policy Insights, Macroeconomic Advisers. Despite its dry title, Brian Sack's February 22 talk at the National Economists Club presents important pioneering of new ground at the heart of the monetary policy debate by Macroeconomic Advisers, one of the top forecasting firms in the country whose co-founder is a former Federal Reserve Governor and award-winning forecaster. Macroeconomic Advisers had also done pioneering and influential work on productivity, which has been part of the basic debate over the productivity acceleration. Dr. Sack discusses the process through which the Federal Reserve anchors long-term inflation expectations, which is at the heart of monetary policy. He questions the conventional wisdom that those expectations can be easily dislodged and looks at the substantial implications of the Fed’s credibility for both the economy and financial markets. With solid Fed credibility, the Fed should be able to get more "bang for the buck" from its monetary policy moves. As a consequence, patience for Fed policy steps to work through the economy and financial system may be more appropriate than additional Fed moves at certain times - including now. Dr. Sack's timely discussion raises the possibility that risk premiums were not too small in the mid to late 1990s - an issue that is relevant for assessing financial market pricing today. The NEC talk should be of interest to Fed watchers and students concerned about monetary policy, Federal Reserve Board Chairman Bernanke, the Federal Reserve 's (FOMC's) monetary policy steps in the coming months and years, and the outlook for financial markets. To get the most from Dr. Sack's talk, NEC members can also look at his slideshow, which can be downloaded from the NEC website. Recorded 2/22/07 Slideshow (NEC members only)
Time: 58:04. File Size: 19.8 MB (MP3)

NEC Podcast #5: The President's Health Insurance Proposal

Roberton Williams of the Urban Institute examines the Bush Administration's Health Insurance Proposal. The President's proposal would remedy some problems with the current tax treatment of health insurance but would also create new ones. Discussion will sort out the various issues raised by the proposal, offer some preliminary distributional estimates of its effects, and suggest ways to remedy its shortcomings. Recorded 2/15/2007.
Time: 1:04:35. File Size: 22 MB (MP3)
Slideshow (Slideshow is for NEC members only)

NEC Podcast #4: The Healthcare Economy

Michael Mandel, the Chief Economist for Business Week, shows how Healthcare has accounted for a surprisingly large share of net job gains since the last employment peak in 2001. This pattern seems to be continuing, which could change the way we think about long-term productivity growth. Recorded 2/8/2007.
Time: 58:02. File Size 20 MB. (MP3)
Slideshow (NEC members only

NEC Podcast #3: The 2007 Budget and Economic Outlook

Donald Marron, Deputy Director of the Congressional Budget Office returned to the NEC to present the CBO's annual view of the baseline budget and economic situations. Recorded 2/1/2007.
Time 59:28. File Size: 13.6 MB. (MP3)

NEC Podcast #2: The SEC’s Sarbanes-Oxley Fix Needs Fixing”

Alex Pollock, Resident Fellow, American Enterprise Institute. Mr. Pollock has been a resident fellow at AEI since July 2004, focusing on financial policy issues, including government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs), Social Security reform and pension finance, accounting standards, and the issues raised by the Sarbanes-Oxley Act.  His presentation on Sarbanes-Oxley covered costs, key items that need changing, and compliance and implementation issues.  He described the Act’s section 404 and the SEC “Concept Release”, citing areas in need of improvement, and outlined needed reforms of the Act. Recorded 1/11/2007
Time: 50:58. File Size: 17.5 MB (MP3)

NEC Podcast #1: The Ratchet Mortgage

Bert Ely of Bert Ely & Co. talks about his new innovation in the mortgage market, the ratchet mortgage. Recorded 1/4/2007.
Time: 1:05:23. File Size: 59.9 MB (MP3)
Slideshow (NEC members only)

 

 

 

 

 

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