Where Economists Meet Since 1968
The NEC will be recording their luncheon speeches and making them available as podcasts.
You will find links to individual podcasts here, and on the Speaker's Links page. You can also subscribe to the podcasting series via the iTunes Music Store (for free) or via other podcatching services.
Need to know more about podcasts? See the NEC Podcast Frequently Asked Questions
NEC #215 - Innovatorship and Grassroots Dynamism
Edmund S. Phelps, Columbia University. This year’s dinner, to be co-hosted with The Embassy of Canada, will feature the first annual NEC Herbert Stein Memorial Lecture, delivered by Edmund S. Phelps, winner of the 2006 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Science. The Stein lecture honors Herb Stein, NEC’s founding President and Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers under two U.S. presidents. Recorded 12/17/2012.
Time 1: 04:04 File Size 19.2 MB Listen
NEC #214 - Glen Hodgson, Conference Board of Canada
Time 1:00:14 File Size 18.1 MB Listen
NEC #213- Economics and the Race for Global Advantage
Robert Atinkson, ITIF. Dr. Atkinson will outline the fundamentals and policy recommendations in his new book "Innovation Economics: The Race for Global Advantage". He will explain the critical wake-up call: a fierce global race for innovation advantage is under way, and while other nations are making support for technology and innovation a central tenet of their economic strategies and policies, America lacks a robust innovation policy. Finally, he will explore how a weak innovation economy not only contributed to the Great Recession but is delaying America's recovery from it and how innovation in the United States compares with that in other developed and developing nations. Recorded 12/6/2012
Time 1:18:56 File Size 23.7 MB Listen
NEC #212 - How Does the Current Business Cycle Inform the Long-Run Outlook?
Neil Soss, Ph.D., Chief Economist, Credit Suisse. Recorded 11/29/12.
Time 57:49 File Size 17.4 MB Listen
NEC #211 - Dealing with the Fiscal Deficit
Martin Feldstein, Harvard University. Professor Feldstein will discuss the reasons for concern, the magnitude of the problem, and the ways of reducing tax expenditures. Recorded 11/27/2012.
Time 55.48 File Size 16.7 MB Listen
NEC #210 - Prospects for Tax Reform
Bruce Bartlett, Columnist, Blogger, Contributor, The Fiscal Times. BRUCE BARTLETT is a columnist and blogger for The Fiscal Times. He was previously a columnist for Forbes Magazine and Creators Syndicate. His writing often focuses on the intersection between politics and economics and attempts to inform politicians about economics and economists about the current nature of politics. Bartlett also blogs at Capital Gains and Games.
Time 55:11 File Size 66 MB Listen
NEC #209 - "RED INK: Inside the High-Stakes Politics of the Federal Budget"
David Wessel, Wall Street Journal Economics Editor. David Wessel will discuss his new book. In his book, Red Ink: Inside the High-Stakes Politics of the Federal Budget, Wessel cuts through the rhetoric and the lingo to explain from whom the federal government raises revenues, exactly where it spends that money and why the federal government is on an unsustainable course. Recorded 9/13.
Time 1:01:43 File Size 18.5 MB Listen
NEC #208 - Building up or Falling off a (Fiscal) Cliff? The Economic Outlook for Construction
Ken Simonson, Chief Economist, Associated General Contractors. The political, policy and economic changes looming in late 2012 and early 2013 may produce either boom or doom. Ken Simonson, chief economist for the nation's leading construction trade association and incoming NABE president, will offer his fearless forecast of the election, the tax and spending decisions in the next three months, and the implications for different sectors of construction. Recorded September 6, 2012
Time 1:05:35 File Size 9.3 MB Listen
NEC #207 - Risk, Equality, and Economic Narratives
Special Correspondent, Newsweek, Daily Beast; Formerly, Senior Editor,
The Atlantic Monthly. Recorded July 12, 2012
Time 55:31 File Size 16.7 MB Listen
NEC #206 - What Should the Winners of 2012 Do in 2013?
Douglas Holtz-Eakin, President, American Action Forum, Jared Bernstein, Senior Fellow, Center on Budget and Policy Priorities. The 2012 election may fundamentally redefine the role of government in our economy and in our lives. Hottz-Eakin and Bernstein will debate the relationship of the public sector to markets, market failures, the safety net, social insurance, income distribution and more. Recorded 6/29/2012
Time 1:07:27 File Size 9.6 MB Listen
NEC #205 - An Economic Analysis of Drug Legalization
Jeffrey Miron, Senior Lecturer and Director of Undergraduate Studies, Dept of Economics, Harvard University. Drug prohibition is practiced by virtually all societies, and mainstream political discussion rarely broaches the subject of drug legalization. According to standard economic reasoning, however, drug prohibition is likely to cause numerous undesirable consequences and is almost certainly inferior to alternative policies for addressing the social costs created by drug use. This talk will present the economic arguments for drug legalization and discuss the evidence pertaining to this analysis. An important theme will be that that even if drug consumption is undesirable – in the sense that drug consumption causes harm to innocent third parties – prohibition is probably the worst possible approach for addressing these harms. At the same time, alternative approaches – including sin taxation, education campaigns, or subsidized treatment – have their own undesirable side effects. Thus, it is possible if not likely that a laissez-faire approach to drug consumption is the best that society can achieve. Recorded May 24, 2012.
Time 1:00:48 File Size 18.2 MB Listen
NEC #204 - The Rise of Asia and The New Economic Order
Dale Jorgensen, Professor, Harvard University. Professor Jorgensenshifts attention from threats to the short-term growth of the world economy, as formidable as these may be, to growth potential over the next decade. The fundamentals for the world economy are strong. Moreover, it is time to recognize the emerging trends that have developed since the watershed reforms of China and India more than two decades ago. His theme is that a massive reconfiguration of the world economy is gradually unfolding and will be completed in the next ten years. The first of the major trends in the world economy to be realized within the next decade is that China will overtake the U.S. in 2015. The second major trend is that Developing Asia will overtake the G7 in 2016 in terms of purchasing power parities. This trend will be largely driven by the rapid growth of China, but India will also make a significant contribution.The final long-term development is that India will overtake Japan, Russia will overtake Germany, and Brazil will overtake the U.K., leading to a New World Economic Order in 2020: China, the U.S., India, Japan, Russia, Germany, and Brazil.
Time 57:44 File Size 17.3 MB Listen
NEC #203 - Clear Communications and Monetary Policy
Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President and CEO Charles Plosser will discuss how clear communications about monetary policy helps increase its effectiveness and the accountability ofthe Federal Reserve. Recorded 4/12/12
Time 48:30 File Size 14.6 MB Listen
NEC #202 - Productivity Puzzles and the Recovery
Martin Baily, Bernard L. Schwartz Chair, Economic Policy Development The Brookings Institution. The speaker will explore three related issues. First, there has been a consensus view that the decline in manufacturing employment is the result of rapid productivity in the sector. However, recent papers have suggested both that manufacturing productivity has been overstated and that trade is the main reason for the loss of manufacturing jobs. Second, can we make sense of the shifting pattern of productivity over the business cycle and the apparent breakdown in the “normal” relationship between GDP and employment or unemployment. Third, during the 1990s potential GDP growth was over 3 percent, contributing to the great improvement in incomes and budget balance. Are we now in a “new normal” of slow trend growth? Recorded 3/29/2011
Time 1:07:22 File Size 20.2 MB Listen
NEC #201 - Retail Automotive in a Slow-Growth Economy
Paul Taylor, Chief Economist, National Automobile Dealers Association. Dr. Taylor will discuss retail automobile sales in the US and review developments in the manufacturing sector. Recorded 3/22/2012
Time 55:06 File Size 16.5 MB Listen
NEC #200 - The Outlook for the Washington Area Economy
John McClain, Deputy Director, Center for Regional Analysis,
School of Public Policy,
George Mason University. The scope of this presentation will include the changing role of federal spending in the performance of the local economy, how changes in federal spending locally have already impacted the economy's performance, and the projected growth path in light of curtailed spending for both procurement and wages and salaries going forward to 2015. Recorded 3/1/2012.
Time 47:48 File Size 14.3 MB Listen
NEC #199 - India’s Unusual Economic Past and Uncertain Economic Future
Arvind Subramanian, Senior Fellow, Peterson Institute for International Economics. The presentation will highlight what has been distinctive about India’s economic growth in the last 3 decades. Based on this history and performance, it will assess future growth and development prospects, drawing comparisons as relevant with China’s development experience. Recorded 2/23/12.
Time 59:27 File Size 17.8 MB Listen
NEC #198 - From Financial Crisis to Stagnation: The Destruction of Shared Prosperity and the Role of Economics
Thomas Palley, Ph.D., Associate, economic Growth Program, New America Foundation.Dr. Palley was formerly Chief Economist with the US – China Economic and Security Review Commission. Prior to joining the Commission he was Director of the Open Society Institute’s Globalization Reform Project, and before that he was Assistant Director of Public Policy at the AFL-CIO. He is the author of Plenty of Nothing: The Downsizing of the American Dream and the Case for Structural Keynesianism (Princeton University Press) and Post Keynesian Economics (Macmillan Press). His latest book, From Financial Crisis to Stagnation: The Destruction of Shared Prosperity and the Role of Economics is being published by Cambridge University Press in February 2012. He has published in numerous academic journals, and written for The Atlantic Monthly, American Prospect and Nation magazines. He holds a B.A. degree from Oxford University and a M.A. degree in International Relations and Ph.D. in Economics, both from Yale University. Recorded Feb 16, 2012.
Time 1:01:49 File Size 18.5 MB Listen
NEC #197 - Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2012 to 2022
Douglas Elmendorf, Director, Congressional Budget Office. Dr. Elmendorf speaks on the recently released “Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2012 to 2022 ”, a report on the state of the budget and the economy that the Congressional Budget Office issues each year. The report deals with fiscal policy, baseline spending projections, revenue estimates, and economic forecasts. Recorded 2/9/2012.
Time 59:48 File Size 17.9 MB Listen
NEC #196 - Year of the Political Economy. How will Housing Fare?
Douglas Duncan, Chief Economist and Vice President, Fannie Mae. This year has more uncertainty related to policy change than any year in recent memory. Monetary policy is in flux and extending to fiscal policy in housing. Fiscal policy has many choices on business and household taxes set to expire. A wide variety of regulations are in development or implementation. Housing is in the middle of all of these forces. Recorded 2/2/2012.
Time 57:31 File Size 17.3 MB Listen
NEC #195 - Unraveling the Euro Crisis
Ted Truman, Senior Fellow, Petersen Institute for International Affairs.Ted Truman has worked on European matters since the mid-1960s. In his talk, he will review how Europe got to where it found itself two years ago and then discuss the crisis and some of the interpretations of its cause. He will then describe and critique the crisis management, and close with where Europe might be going. Recorded 1/26/2012.
Time 1:02:30 File Size 18.8 MB Listen
NEC #194 - The Slowdown in Medicare Spending Growth: What Does it Mean?
Chapin White, Center for Studying Health System Change. CBO and the CMS Actuaries have been surprised and puzzled by recent slowdowns in spending growth in the Medicare program. In this presentation, Dr. White will quantify the magnitude of the slowdown, assess possible explanations, and put the slowdown in a larger context. The Medicare slowdown could be a short-lived fluke, or it could signal the need for a rethinking of some core assumptions. Dr. White will identify the key assumptions that underlie Medicare spending projections, and describe why they might need to be updated. Recorded 1/19/2012.
Time 52:33 File Size 15.8 MB Listen
NEC #193 - The Global Manufacturing Outlook
Dan Meckstroth, Chief Economist and Director of Research, The Manufacturers Alliance for Productivity and Innovation (MAPI). Manufacturing production in the United States is expected to growth modestly faster than the overall economy in 2012. Dan Meckstroth will identify the industries within the manufacturing sector that will drive the growth and explain why some industries that are lagging. He will then discuss the manufacturing outlook in the major regions of the world. A recession in Europe and the extent of a slowdown in Latin America and Asia are included in the global manufacturing outlook presentation. Recorded January 12, 2012.
Time 59:20 File Size 17.8 MB Listen
NEC #192 - CBO's Use of Evidence in Analysis of Budget and Economic Policies
Jeffrey Kling, Associate Director for Economic Analysis at the Congressional Budget Office, is an economist who joined CBO in July 2009. He has conducted research on public housing, incarceration, retirement security, Medicare's prescription drug program, unemployment insurance, and other aspects of public policy in the United States. His work has been published in the American Economic Review, Econometrica, the Quarterly Journal of Economics, and elsewhere. Previously, he was the Joseph A. Pechman Senior Fellow and Deputy Director of Economic Studies at the Brookings Institution. From 1998 to 2005, he was a faculty member at Princeton University. In earlier government service, he was a special assistant to the Secretary of Labor and an assistant to the chief economist at the World Bank. He earned his Ph.D. in economics from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and his A.B. from Harvard University. Recorded Dec 12, 2011.
Time 55:07 File Size 16.5 MB Listen
NEC #191 - Both Sides Now: Bipartisan Healthcare Wrap-Up
Len Nichols, George Mason University and James Capretta, Ethics and Public Policy Center. Two veteran White House health care policy advisors – one a Democrat and the other a Republican – will discuss where healthcare reform stands at year-end. 2012 will be a pivotal year for the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act – the landmark healthcare law enacted in 2010. It will be a busy year for implementation at both the federal and state levels, and the U.S. Supreme Court will consider challenges to the law. Recorded Dec 8, 2011.
Time 1:05:13 File Size 19.6 MB Listen
NEC #190 - The Cheshire Cat Economy: Why We are Underestimating the Impact of Trade
Michael Mandel, Chief Economic Strategist, Progressive Policy Institute. The official statistics say that real GDP is now above pre-recession levels, output per hour risen at a decent rate since 2007, and the real trade deficit has shrunk. Mr. Mandel will demonstrate why these figures may understate the impact of trade and overstate the true health of the U.S. economy. Recorded Dec 1, 2011.
Time 1:00:52 File Size 18.3 MB Listen
NEC #189 - Financial and Climate Regulation: Macro or Micro?
David M. Driesen, Syracuse University College of Law. For many years now, experts have addressed both financial and environmental regulation through a microeconomic lens. Under this approach, regulation is viewed as an analogue to a market transaction and its efficiency evaluated primarily through a cost-benefit analysis predicated on standard neoclassical assumptions. This talk will examine the question of whether this approach has helped sustain adequate financial and environmental regulation and what the alternative might be. It draws on a forthcoming book arguing for an economic dynamic approach to law predicated on the idea of law contributing to a macroeconomic framework, rather than directly controlling resource allocation. This alternative involves making avoidance of systemic risk a major goal of government policy. It shifts the focus from counting costs and benefits to evaluating the shape of change over time. And it calls for a more systematic evaluation of economic incentives through an economic dynamic analysis drawing on institutional economics and scenario analysis. An economic dynamic approach may play to the strengths of government economists, who may have a feel for the nature of the particular form of bounded rationality the actors they regulate exhibit. This approach confronts, rather than wishes away, the uncertainties that bedevil efforts to address the future through law, which is what both climate and financial regulation must do. Recorded Nov 17, 2011.
Time 1:00:45 File Size 18.2 MB Listen
NEC #188 - Headwinds and Tailwinds: The Path Forward for the US Economy
Jason Furman, Principal Deputy Director, White House National Economic Council. Speech at the NEC Annual Dinner. Recorded November 7, 2011.
Time 1:02:27 File Size 18.7 MB Listen
NEC #187 - Where is the Chinese Economy Headed?
Greg Fager, Chief Economist, Asia Pacific Department, The Institute of International Finance, Inc. While the mature economies have been plagued by fiscal stress and lackluster growth, policy in China has sought to dampen domestic demand and curb inflation. Rising prospects for a renewed slowdown in global growth have raised concerns that the Chinese economy is headed for a sharp correction in response to a drop off in exports and a bust in the booming property market. China's massive holdings of official foreign exchange reserves and the slow pace of exchange rate appreciation have also rekindled lingering tensions with its major trading partners. The discussion will focus on an assessment of macroeconomic policies in China and examine the near-term outlook for growth in a changing global environment. Recorded 11/3/2011.
Time 1:08:04 File Size 20.4 MB Listen
NEC #186 - FTC Protecting Competition and Consumers: Economics of Loyalty Pricing and Debt Collection
Joseph Farrell, Director, Bureau of Economics, Federal Trade Commission. The Federal Trade Commission deals with two branches of law enforcement: competition and consumer policy. The talk will reflect the work that the FTC does in those areas. In certain cases, the FTC is suspicious of dominant firms offering price discounts in return for a customer’s willingness to limit dealings with the dominant firm’s rivals. Other times, the FTC gets involved with the economics of debt collection, which is essential to capital markets but apt to be taken too far, and with some of the things that policy does about that problem. Recorded Oct 20, 2011
Time 57:00 File Size 17.1 MB Listen
NEC #185 - Corporate Tax Reform
Ike Brannon, Director of Economic Studies and Congressional Relations, American Action Forum. Please note: background noise during recording has reduced the quality of this podcast. Recorded 10/6/2011.
Time 54:45 File Size 16.4 MB Listen
NEC #184 - Can the Super Budget Committee Succeed When So Many Others Have Failed to Fix Fiscal Policy?
Rudolph Penner, Senior Fellow, Urban Institute. The talk will focus on the formidable challenges facing the super committee and speculate on how the automatic deficit reductions might work if the committee fails. Recorded Sept 28, 2011.
Time 51:36 File Size 15.5 MB Listen
NEC #183 - The Most Pressing Problems of the EuroZone and Beyond
Jan Winiecki, Monetary Policy Council of the National Bank of Poland. Policy contortions with respect to Eurozone peripheries are presently very important. Much more important, however, are longer-term issues - very high public expenditures relative to GDP, associated aging issues, and yet another, voluntarily undertaken burden - “fighting global warming.“ Even with successful institutional rearrangements of the Eurozone, unsolved issues threaten not only its existence, but the very well-being of Europe. Recorded Sept 22, 2011.
Time 1:02:18 File Size 18.7 MB Listen
NEC #182 - Housing Finance Reform: Moving Forward
Phillip Swagel, Professor, International Economic Policy, Maryland School of Public Policy and Non-resident Scholar, American Enterprise Institut. A background paper is available at:
http://www.milkeninstitute.org/pdf/HousingFinanceReform.pdf . Recorded Sept 15, 2011
Time 54:23 File Size 16.3 MB Listen
NEC #181 - An Economic Update on U.S. Manufacturers
Chad Moutray, Chief Economist, National Association of Manufacturers. Dr. Moutray discusses the economic health of manufacturers, who have helped to boost overall growth in the recovery, and provide an economic outlook for the industry. As part of this discussion, he will focus on the sectors which are growing the strongest right now as well as economic and policy challenges that manufacturers are facing right now.( Due to technical difficulties, the last five minutes of the Q&A was not recorded.)
Time 52:09 File Size 15.7 MB Listen
NEC #180 - Tax Hikes, Tax Expenditures, Tax Reform -- What a Mess
JD Foster, The Heritage Foundation. The debt ceiling debate has accelerated debate about tax policy to an extent not seen in years. This has revealed some useful tendencies and some hopeful trends. Among this is a much greater appetite for substantial tax reform. The recent debate has also brought to the fore once again some basic structural flaws in the analytical structures that tend to guide tax reform. If the building consensus toward tax reform is to succeed, the principles of tax reform need to be as clear as the tools are as sound. There's a lot of work to do. Recorded July 28, 2011.
Time 49:05 File Size 14.7 MB Listen
NEC #179 - Spending in the Tax Code
Donald Marron, Director, Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center. Note: because of technical problems during recording, the end of this podcast was not recorded. Policymakers and pundits usually talk as though spending and tax breaks are distinct. Spending is what government gives out or uses for purchases, while tax breaks reduce how much revenue government collects. However, fiscal reality is much blurrier. Hundreds of billions of dollars of spending are hidden in the tax code. That creates challenges for how we think about the size of government. It also points the way to fiscal reforms that could be embraced both by those who favor lower spending and by those who favor higher revenues. Recorded July 21, 2011
Time 24:55 File Size 7.5 MB Listen
Director, Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center
NEC #178 -The Renewed Surge in Food Commodity Prices
Ron Trostle - US Dep of Agriculture/Economic Research Service. There has been a large and rapid increase in many food commodity prices during the last year. Many of the same long-term trends and short-run shock factors that contributed to this recent surge in prices also played a role in previous price spikes. The recent 2010-11 price surge followed unusually closely behind the 2007-08 price spike and raises concerns about food security and the possibility that world agricultural supply and demand relationships may have fundamentally changed. Recorded 6/30/2011.
Time 1:03:08 File Size 19.9 MB Listen
NEC #177 - Hispanics and Immigrants in the Economic Boom and Bust, 2000-2010
Rakesh Kochhar, Assoc Dir for Researc, Pew Hispanic Center. The economic fortunes of Hispanic and immigrant workers in the past decade were closely tied to the boom and bust in the housing market. Historic lows in unemployment rates were followed by sharp reversals in the Great Recession. Despite strong economic headwinds in recent years, immigration continues to be one of the key drivers of growth in the U.S. population and labor force. Recorded June 2, 2011.
Time 53:04 File Size 15.9 MB Listen
NEC #176 - What's up with crude oil and gasoline prices?
John Felmy, Chief Economist, American Petroleum Institute (API). How did we get here? What should we do about it and what should we not do? What is the reality about energy and what are the myths? Recorded May 26, 2011.
Time 57:16 File Size 17.2 MB Listen
NEC #175 - Programming for Growth: The Economic Impact of Foreign Aid
Bruce Bolnick Chief Economist, International Group Nathan Associates Inc. Does foreign aid deliver value for money in promoting economic growth and improving well being for people in developing countries? This question is a source of endless debate. In this presentation, Dr. Bolnick will first discuss the importance of growth for poverty reduction and human welfare in low-income countries--itself a source of controversy--and quickly review the (indecisive) empirical literature on aid and growth. The talk will then focus on the impact and effectiveness of USAID’s economic growth (EG) programs, based on a recent review of the available evidence. Recorded May 19, 2011
Time 1:02:32 File Size 18.8 MB Listen
NEC #174 - Evaluating Alternative Roadmaps to Fiscal Sustainability
Mark Zandi, Chief Economist, Moody's Analytics. With an economic expansion taking hold, policymakers are appropriately shifting their focus to the nation’s massive fiscal problems. A number of different proposals for returning to reining in the nation’s deficits and ballooning debt load have been proposed. Zandi will discuss the economic implications of these alternative roadmaps to fiscal sustainability. Recorded May 12, 2011.
Time 1:02:40 File Size 18.8 MB Listen
NEC #173 - Implications of Health Reform and Debt Reduction for Employment-Based Health Benefits
Paul Fronstin, Director, Health Research & Education Program, Employee Benefit Research Institute (EBRI). Since PPACA was passed one of the most important questions has become “how are employers going to react?” The CBO assumed very little change in the number of workers with job-based health coverage, but a case can be made for less employer involvement in health coverage. In this discussion, the impact of PPACA will be examined as will the implications of future debt reduction. Recorded May 5, 2011.
Time 58:08 File Size 17.4 MB Listen
NEC #172 - Residential Broadband Internet Use in the U.S.
Beethika Khan, Ph.D., Economist, U.S. Dept of Commerce/ESA. The presentation will summarize the main findings from the November 2010 Commerce Department report, Exploring the Digital Nation: Home Broadband Internet Adoption in the U.S. (available at http://www.esa.doc.gov/Reports/exploring-digital-nation-home-broadband-internet-adoption-united-states)
Time 43:09, File Size 12.9 MB Listen
NEC #171 - The Impact of Recent Macroeconomic Forces on the Global Defense Industrial Base
Nayantara Hensel, Chief Economist, U.S. Dept of the Navy. The defense industrial base in the US has witnessed many changes over the past twenty years, following the end of the Cold War and has been reshaped by a variety of significant forces. This presentation examines the impact of the recent shift in defense priorities toward irregular warfare on the defense industrial base, the globalization of the defense sector, and, especially, the impact of the financial crisis in Europe on the orientation of the US and European industrial bases. The presentation also explores the increasing reliance of the defense sector on rare earth minerals from China, and discusses recent developments in the rare earth sector, as well as current challenges. Recorded 4/21/11.
Time 56:38 File Size 17 MB Listen
NEC #170 - The Economics and Sociology of Health Reform
John Goodman, President and CEO, National Center for Policy Analysis.T he Affordable Care Act contains six distortions that will most certainly force lawmakers to deal with unintended outcomes of this legislation in the future. Why did Congress ignore the economics of the policy in the first place? The answer possibly can be found in the sociology of health reform itself. Recorded 4/14/2011.
Time 58:25 File Size 17.5 MB Listen
NEC #169 - The U.S. Small Business Economy and the SBA
Giuseppe Gramigna, Chief Economist, U.S. Small Business Administration. The sales, earnings, capital expenditures and financing of many small firms have experienced a sharp decline as a result of the most recent recession. In response to this fact, the SBA undertook several steps to address the credit contraction for small firms, in particular. As a result of this action, the SBA is experiencing a rebound in the dollar value of its guarantees. However, the data of many small firms indicate that a large number of them have not yet reentered the credit markets. Mr. Gramigna will discuss this and other aspects of the current situation. Recorded 4/7/2011.
Time 1:00:30 File Size 18.2 MB Listen
NEC #168 - The Turmoil in the Municipal Bond Market
John Mousseau, Managing Director and Portfolio Manager, Cumberland Advisors. The municipal bond market and the forces at work in the market from the fall of 2010 to the present will be examined. An overview of Build America Bonds, the supply spikes and mutual fund redemptions, all of which contributed to the meltdown in the market will be presented and discussed. Recorded 3/31/2011.
Time 1:03:32 File Size 19.1 MB Listen
NEC #167 - "Barriers to Effective Economic Decision-Making"
John Silvia, Chief Economist, Wells Fargo. Sometimes it is wise to examine how decisions are made. In the hurry to meet press deadlines, member requests or that call from the top of the house, often the framework for our decisions and the mental barriers to making those decisions are left to chance. In this discussion, we will examine the dynamics of the decision process and the barriers that keep people from effective decision-making. Recorded 3/24/2011
Time 57:39 File Size 17.3 MB Listen
NEC #166 - "U.S. Airlines – A Global Perspective from Inside the Beltway"
John P. Heimlich, Vice President and Chief Economist, Air Transport Association. Recorded 3/17/2011.
Time 59:06 File Size 17.7 MB Listen
NEC #165 - “Social Security, the Federal Budget, and the Federal Debt”
Stephen Goss, Chief Actuary, Social Security Administration. The financial status of the Social Security Trust Funds need strengthening, largely because of fundamental changes in the demographic composition of the US population. This discussion will focus on the extent of the projected shortfall in financing and what has caused this shortfall. In addition, the role that the Social Security program and its finances play in the federal budget deficits and measures of federal debt will be explored. Recorded 3/10/2011
Time 1:05:38 File Size 19.7 MB Listen
NEC #164 - "The Economic Outlook for the Housing and Mortgage Markets"
Frank Nothaft, Vice President and Chief Economist, Freddie Mac. A review of the trends and latest projections of housing and residential mortgage loan activity in the U.S. for 2011. Recorded 3/3/2011
Time 1:01:03 File Size 18.3 MB Listen
NEC #163 - “Copycats: How Smart Companies Use Imitation to Gain Strategic Edge”
Oded Shenkar, Ohio State Univeristy. In the business world, imitation gets a bad rap. We see imitating firms as “me too” players forced to copy because they have nothing original to offer. In Copycats, Oded Shenkar challenges this viewpoint. He reveals how imitationundefinedthe exact or broad-brushed copying of an innovationundefinedis as critical to prosperity as innovation. Shenkar shows how savvy imitators generate huge profits and how they avoid costly errors by observing and learning from other’s trials. He will present suggestions for making imitation a core element in competitive strategies and pairing it powerfully with innovation. Recorded 2/17/2011
Time 1:01:23 File Size 18.4 MB Listen
NEC #162 - Affirmative Action and Women’s Unemployment Rates
Diana Furchtgott-Roth, Director, Center for Employment Policy and Senior Fellow, Hudson Institute. Compared to men, women in 21st century America live five years longer than men; face an unemployment rate that is two percentage points lower; are awarded a substantially larger share of high school diplomas, B.A.s, and M.A.s; and face lower rates of incarceration, alcoholism, and drug abuse. Even so, our government continues to advocate policies that favor women over men. The new financial regulation bill has mandated 29 offices to help the advancement of women. The recently-passed health reform law has set up multiple offices of women’s health. President Obama wants to extend quotas now in place for women in university sports to science and math. Recorded 2/10/2010
Time 57:40 File Size 17.3 MB Listen
NEC #161 - Consumer, Producer and Import/Export Prices: Current Challenges in Measuring Inflation
Michael Horrigan, Associate Commissioner for the Office of Prices and Living Conditions. He will examine three measurement challenges faced by BLS in measuring inflation -- is globalization leading to overestimation of import inflation, real GDP and labor productivity; are health care price indexes overstating medical care inflation; and how can one measure the inflation experience of a targeted demographic group, such as the elderly? Recorded 2/3/2011.
Time 55:41 File Size 16.7 MB Listen
NEC #160 - Strengthening the Economy by Expanding Housing Demand Equitably and Efficiently
Robert Lerman, Urban Institute and American University. Battered home prices and weak demand for owner-occupied housing continue to act as a major drag on the U.S. economy. Job and output losses have been concentrated in the construction industry; depressed home prices continue to expose banks and taxpayers to massive obligations; and healthy recoveries have nearly always involved an expanding housing sector. In this talk, Mr. Lerman proposes a plan that calls to create 1 million home ownership vouchers patterned after the section 8 rent voucher program. He will further attempt to explain and justify why this approach can significantly expand the demand for owner-occupied housing in ways far more equitable and far less costly than recent policies. Various program design options will be considered, as well as the likely positive feedback on the economy.
Time 1:01:45 File Size 18.5 MB Listen
NEC #159 - MIA: Small Business in this Recovery
Bill Dunkelberg, Chief Economist, NFIB, will describe the small-business sector's lack of growth and how this helps explain the economy's weak overall recovery. While small businesses report that credit is available, they have little interest in borrowing in a market plagued by weak sales. Economic policy has done little to return sales to normal levels.
Time 1:04:09 File Size 19.3 MB Listen
NEC #158 - Scenarios for Fiscal Reform
Maya MacGuineas, President, Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. The speaker reviews a number of possible approaches to fixing, or failing to fix, America’s fiscal challenges, including a comprehensive approach, various incremental approaches, and a do nothing approach. Recorded January 6, 2011.
Time 58:57 File Size 17.7 MB Listen
NEC #157 - Entrepreneurship and the Great Recession: Theory, Data and Policy
Zoltan Acs, Director, Center for Entrepreneurship and Public Policy. For 20 years from 1982, the US economy created millions and millions of jobs. During this time we had limited theory to guide us, little data but good policy. Today the economy is in a deep recession and we are creating almost no net new jobs. The speaker will discuss both the theory and the policy involved in the process of job creation. Recorded 12/16/2010
Time 59:55 File Size 18 MB Listen
NEC #156 - The US Economic Situation and Recent Monetary Policy Developments
James Bullard, President, FRB of Stl Louis . President Bullard will comment on recent monetary policy actions, including the Fed decision to purchase $600 billion in Treasury securities. In his presentation, he will cover developments in financial markets in anticipation of the Treasury purchase program and discuss the risks to the program going forward. President Bullard will also touch on other policy issues, such as the current fiscal situation in the U.S. Recorded 12/2/2010
Time 58:10 File Size 17.5 MB Listen
NEC #155 - A Comprehensive Look at Housing-Finance Reform
Bert Ely, Ely and Company.Congress has wrestled with housing-finance reform in bits and pieces, such as re-pricing FHA guarantees and debating how to restructure Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. However, it has not yet considered housing finance from a global perspective, in terms of mortgage products, how those products are safely and efficiently funded, and the structure through which mortgage products are produced and delivered to American homeowners. The presentation will review data on the amount of financing now provided to American home owners, discuss mortgage-product innovations such as the ratchet mortgage, funding innovations such as covered bonds, and explain why there should be much less reliance on mortgage securitization in the future. Recorded 11/16/2010
Time 58:53 File Size 17.87 MB Listen
NEC #154 - Regulation and the CFTC
Gary Gensler, Chair, Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Remarks after the NEC Annual Dinner. Recorded 11/9/2010.
Time 55:36 File Size 16.7 MB Listen
NEC #153 - Recreating a 21st Century Trade Policy
Bill Reinsch, National Foreign Trade Council. Mr. Reinsch will review the Administration’s trade policy in the wake of the 2010 election and how it needs to adapt to a world dominated by global supply chains. Recorded 11/4/2010.
Time 10229 File Size 18.7 MB Listen
NEC #152 - Short Term Pessimist, Long Term Optimist: Trade Protection on the Road to the Seoul Summit
Gary Hufbauer, Peterson Institute for Internaitonal Economics. What is the extent of protectionism since the onset of the Great Recession? What are the prospects for trade policy and trade growth in the medium term? Dr. Hufbauer will review empirical evidence on change in protectionist measures in the recent past and the outlook for globalization over the next decade. Recorded 10/22/10
Time 56:18 File Size16.2 MB Listen
NEC #151 - The Unique Interaction Effects of Renewable Energy Policies
Harry de Gorter, CATO Institute and Cornell University. he efficacy of alternative renewable energy policies is assessed, where government mandates are shown to be superior to subsidies, especially with sub-optimal fuel taxes and the higher costs involved with raising tax revenues. But subsidies with mandates cause a unique adverse interaction effect: oil consumption is subsidized instead. This has clear implications for evolving U.S. renewable energy policies which are receiving increased attention in a post cap & trade world. Recorded October 14, 2010
Time 56:53 File Size 17.1 MB Listen
NEC #150 - The Best Ways to Raise More Revenue
Donald Marron, Urban Institute - Brookings Tax Policy Center. The US fiscal outlook is grim, with spending is on track to rise faster than revenues in coming years,e presentation will discuss how to raise additional revenue with the least economic harm and, potentially, with real economic benefits. driving the nation further into debt even after the economy recovers. Aggressive spending restraint will be essential in any effort to tame future deficits. But given economic, demographic, and political realities, it is difficult to believe that spending restraint alone will be enough to get the job done.
Time 57:09 File Size 17.1 MB Listen
NEC #149 - Living in the Political Wake of the Bubble
Alex Pollock, American Enterprise Institute
Time 52:17 File Size 15 MB Listen
NEC #148 - A Strategy for U.S. Fiscal Policy
Douglas Holtz-Eakin, American Action Forum
Time 57:01 Size 17.1 Listen
NEC #147 - Europe's Response to the Greek Sovereign Debt Crisis
Jacob Kirkegaard, Peterson Institute
Time 59:53 Size 18 MB Listen
NEC #146 - In Search of Tax Rate Certainty
Pete Davis, Davis Capital Investment Ideas. Recorded 7/29/2010.
Time 54:24 Size 16.4 MB Listen
NEC #145 - Experimental Economics
Kevin McCabe, George Mason University. Recorded July 22, 2010.
File Size 18.3 MB, Time 1:03:39 Listen
NEC #144 - Impact of the Recession on DC Economy and Tax Revenues
Norton Francis, Government of District of Columbia, looks at the effect of the recession on District finances. Recorded July 15, 2010.
File size 18.2 MB Time 1:00:43 Listen
NEC #143 - Steel Wheel Interstates: A thrifty proposal for rationalizing America’s freight transportation system
Phillip Longman, New American Foundation. Mr. Longman will examine proposal that employ public/private partnerships to get long-haul trucks off the road and on to trains. Benefits range from vastly improved fuel efficiency and logistics costs, to safer, less congested highways, and potentially emission-free transportation. Recorded July 8, 2010.
File Size 20.8 MB Time 1:09:29 Listen
NEC #142 - Aviation Industry Overview and Forecast
Richard Aboulafia, Vice President, Analysis, Teal Group Corporation. The Aviation industry may be the last healthy part of the world economy. Recorded July 1, 2010.
File Size 17.5 MB Time 1:01:03 Listen
NEC #141 - Construction and Materials Outlook
Ken Simonson, Chief Economist, Associated General Contractors
File size 14.4 MB, Time 48:06 Listen
NEC #140 - Social Security
Jagadeesh Gokhale, Cato Institute
File Size16.8 MB, Time 55:50 Listen
NEC #139 - A View from the FDIC
Richard Brown, Chief Economist, FDIC. Because of technical difficultiies (a waiter kicked out the mic cord) there is a gap in this podcast. Recorded June 10, 2010.
File Size 15.5 MB Time 53:53 Listen
NEC #138 - State Budget Update: Mind the Gap
Michael Bird, Federal Affairs Counsel at National Conference of State Legislature. Michael Bird looks at the fiscal situation faced by states. Recorded June 3, 2010.
File Size 18.9 MB Time 1:02:53 Listen
NEC #137 - More Room to Fall? Prospects for House Prices in Major Economies
IMF. Mr. Loungani will present evidence on house price movements in major economies around the world-including the US, Canada, the Euro area, and China. He will discuss estimates of misalignment in housing prices based on analysis of past cycles and econometric estimates of the fundamental drivers of housing prices. Particular attention will be paid to developments within the United States (where the impact is very different across cities, states and regions) and developments in countries like China (where some observers are concerned about house price inflation). Recorded 5/27/2010.
File Size 16.8 MB, Time 55:59 Listen
NEC #136 - Household Leveraging and Deleveraging
Karen Dynan, Vice President and Co-Director, Economic Studies and Robert S. Kerr Senior Fellow
Brookings Institution. Recorded May 20, 2010.
File Size 14.4 MB, Time 50:19 Listen
NEC #135 - The New Economic Reality: How New and How Real?
Lynn Reaser, Chief Economist, Point Loma Nazarene University and NABE President.Dr. Reaser will explore key questions pertaining to our new economic reality: How will the global economy fare during the balance of 2010? Can China prevent a boom-bust? Will the dollar strengthen or weaken? Will the U.S. economy falter as stimulus fades or will momentum in the private sector continue to build? When will the Fed tighten and how will stock and bond prices behave? What are the primary risks facing the economy in the short and medium term? The new economic reality—what has changed and what has not? Recorded May 13, 2010.
File Size 16.8 MB Time 58:32 Listen
NEC #134 - Animal Spirits and the Economic Outlook
Robert Shiller of Yale Univerisity, co-author of Animal Spirits with George Akerlof talks about the role of animal spirits in the economic recovery. Recorded 5/6/2010.
File Size 20.2 MB, Time 1:07:10 Listen
NEC #133 - The State of the US Residential Mortgage Market
The problems in the mortgage market are very deep, as 8 million borrowers have not been paying their mortgages and millions more are seriously under water. If no further action is taken, we can expect more than 12 million borrowers to go through foreclosure and lose their homes. While there is no easy, one-size-all fix for these problems, Ms. Goodman will focus on ways to address both the supply side through a successful mortgage modification program and the demand side, through increased credit availability for the residential mortgage sector.
File Size 17.7 MB Time 59:03 Listen
NEC #132 - Taking Away the Ladle: China's Exit Strategy for Monetary Policy
Mark A. DeWeaver, PhD, Quatrarian Capital Management LL. China’s monetary authorities have begun limiting access to credit through administrative measures, an approach to tightening more analogous to taking away the ‘ladle’ than the ‘punchbowl’. Dr. DeWeaver will discuss the limitations of conventional monetary policy tools in the Chinese context and the objectives of this year’s new credit policies.
File Size 17.8 MB Time 59:16 Listen
NEC #131 - Health Reform: Where Do We Go From Here?
Stuart M. Butler, Vice President, Domestic and Economic Policy Studies
The Heritage Foundation, Discussant
Len Nichols, Director, Director of the CHHS Center for Health Policy Research and Ethics
George Mason University, Discussant
Bob Graboyes, Senior Healthcare Advisor
National Federation of Independent Business, Moderator
File Size 17.2 MB Time 57:18 Listen
NEC #130 - The Impact of Globalization and Shifting Defense Priorities on the Defense Industrial Base
Nayantara Hensel, Chief Economist, Department of the Navy. Note: the final part of the Q and A was not captured. Recoreded 3/11/2010
File Size 12.4 MB Time 41:14 Listen
NEC #129 - Modest Recovery, Searching for Stability
Cliff Waldman, Economist and Council Director, MAPI, looks at the post-crisis economic outlook. Recorded 3/4/2010.
File Size 17 MB Time 59:17 Listen
NEC #128 - The Economic and Budget Outlook
Douglas Elmendorf, Director, Congressional Budget Office. Recorded 2/25/2010.
File Size 19.4 MB Time 1:04:36 Listen
NEC #127 - A Carbon/GHG Index for Agriculture
Richard Gilmore, The GIC Group. Whatever the outcome of the cap and trade debate, US agriculture operates in a global food chain system where carbon/ GHG credits increasingly figure into investments and trade. Primary agriculture and value added agro-industries, including food and beverage manufacturing, the biofuel industry, biotech, fertilizer manufacturers and pulp and paper producers, offer significant opportunities for carbon emissions reductions and emissions offsets. For this particular reason, the two economic sectors are viewed as critical components in addressing the issue of climate change. Dr. Gilmore will discuss the development and applications of an index targeted to agriculture that can measure: 1/ financial gains from the introduction of new abatement technologies; 2/ balance sheet asset credit valuations; and 3/ minimize risk and maximize gains in valuations as a universal hedging instrument. Recorded February 18, 2010.
File Size 13.7 MB Time 47:39 Listen
NEC #126 - A Discussion on the Budget
Brian Riedl, Senior Policy Analyst, Heritage Foundation, and Joseph Minarik, SVP & Director of Research, Committee for Economic Development look at the U.S. budget, as part of an NEC on Campus event. Recorded February 16, 2010.
File size 21.6 MB Time 1:15:25 Listen
NEC #125 - Housing Update - Is the End in Sight?
Douglas Duncan, Chief Economist, Fannie Mae. Housing typically contributes about 18 percent to the first year's growth coming out of a recession. Is it positioned to do that this time? Recent indicators have been mixed and there are a lot of policy actions in the economy targeted toward housing. What should we expect in terms of activity in 2010 and further on?
File Size 15.9 MB Time 55:29 Listen
NEC #124 - Small Business Access to Credit in a Deep Recession
William J. Dennis, Jr., NFIB Research Foundation. Recorded 1/28/2010.
File Size 19.1 MB Time 1:06:44 Listen
NEC #123 - Policy Responses to the Great Recession
Mark Zandi, Moody's Economy.com. Recorded 1/21/10
File size 16.3 MB Time 56:52 Listen
NEC #122 - The 2010 Census: It's in Our Hands
Rebecca Blank, Under Secretary for Economic Affairs, US Dept of Commerce, discusses basic information ablut the 2010 United States census that will be released in the spring, 2010.
File Size 14.8 MB Time 49:11 Listen
NEC #121 - Dealing with the Federal Budget in a Time of Madness
Stan Collender, Qorvis Communications LLC. Why use the word “madness” to describe the 2010 budget debate? Think about expiring tax cuts, TARP, 10 percent unemployment, a trillion dollar deficit, Iraq and Afghanistan, a budget commission, and it being and an election year. What other word could possibly be as appropriate?
File Size 14.9 MB Time 51:55 Listen
NEC #120: Who's To Blame for Volatility in the Global Oil Markets?
Adam Sieminski, Chief Energy Economist at Deutsche Bank, looks at reasons for movement in the price of oil. Recorded 12/17/2009.
File Size 17.6 MB Time 58:46 Listen
NEC #119: The Economic Outlook
Chris Varvares, President of Macroeconomic Advisers and the immediate past president of NABE, looks at the economic recovery. Recorded 12/10/2009.
File Size 17.7 MB Time 1:01:33 Listen
NEC #118: Lessons from the Recession
Carl Tannenbaum, Vice President, Risk Specialist Division, Supervision and Regulation Department, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. The current recession, and the associated financial crisis, have challenged some deeply held understandings about banking and the business cycle. Economists in the public and private sectors have been front and center in responding to these challenges. The latest news from the front will be discussed. Recorded 12/3/2009
File Size 17.6 MB, Time 58:38 Listen
NEC #117: Health Care Reform and the U.S. Fiscal Future
Douglas Holtz-Eakin, DHE Consulting, LLC. The former head of the Congressional Budget Office looks at the health-care debate. Recorded 11/19/2009.
File Size 15.7 MB Time 54:50 Listen
NEC #116: What Will Be Left When the Dust Settles?
Diane Swonk, Managing Director and Chief Economist,
Mesirow Financial. A review of the post-financial crisis economy, whether we are out of the woods and what is inevitable given the damage that was done.Recorded 11/12/2009.
File Size 17.1 MB, Time 59:50 Listen
NEC #115: Regulatory Co-ordination between the US and Europe
Gary Litman, U.S. Chamber of Commerce. As the EU is devising new and much strengthened regulatory agencies and centers of regulatory power, it is remarkable how little strategic coordination exists between most of the relevant U.S. and EU agencies. Nothing would be more helpful to the interest of American business than to have certainty that regulators of the transatlantic marketplace coordinate their regulatory activities in a transparent, strategic and efficient way. Nothing could be more damaging to business than ad hoc regulatory forays in the new Europe driven by political expediency, the absence of regulatory benchmarks and a lack of understanding of how transatlantic business will be impacted. Mr. Litman will discuss the implications of these issues.Recorded Nov 5, 2009.
File Size16.3 MB, Time 56:59 Listen
NEC #114: Can the U.S. Contain Its Exploding National Debt?
Part of the NEC on Campus series, this podcast has Rudolph Penner of the Urban Institute and J.D. Foster of the Heritage Foundation looking at the long-run fiscal policy of the US.
File size 19.9 MB Time 1:09:14 Listen
NEC #113: Transparency and Accountability in the Recovery Act: GAO's Role
Susan Offutt of the Government Accountability Office, also known as the "congressional watchdog," is the primary agency in charge of ensuring accountability in government spending. The GAO is playing a particularly important role in enforcing accountability and transparency in the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act, a.k.a. the stimulus bill. Dr. Offutt will explain what the GAO does as an audit institution and discuss the role of economic analysis is supporting the GAO's mission, especially with regard to the Recovery Act.
File Size 16.8 MB Time 58:41 Listen
NEC #112: Why is the favorable tax treatment of health insurance controversial in a voluntary system?
Dallas Salisbury of the Employee Benefit Research Institute looks at how would individuals respond to changes in tax treatement of health care? Employers? Who wins and who loses? Is the tax treatment progressive or regressive or does it depend on how you look at it? How big would tax credits have to be to allow purchase by low income individuals? What is a tax fair valuation of health insurance at different ages?
File Size 18.6 MB Time 1:04:49 Listen
NEC #111: The Budget and Economic Outlook
Douglas Elmendorf addresses the NEC concerning the issues surrounding the current budget and its implications for the current and future economy of the United States.
File Size 16.7 MB Time 58:16 Listen
NEC #110: Planning for an “Extended” Event: The micro-economics of what the fall flu season may bring
This event will discuss the current H1N1 situation and anticipated actions that State and Local governments
will be likely to undertake. Participants will learn about the micro-economics of these likely actions and discuss
mitigation efforts that can be undertaken today to better prepare your business and yourselves for the fall flu
File Size 17.7 MB Time 1:01:38 Listen
NEC #109: An Anatomy of Jobless Recoveries: Will Employment Lag Output in 2009-2010 as it did in 2001-03? If Not, Why Not?
Robert Gordon, Stanley G. Harris Professor in the Social Sciences, Northwestern University. The NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee delayed its declaration of November 2001 as the trough recession month for more than 18 months, due to the persistent decline of employment for 18 months after the output trough of November 2001. Assuming that the output trough will ultimately be dated at May or June 2009, similar behavior in the current recession and recovery would imply that employment will continue to decline until the end of 2010. This talk lays out the differences between the past six recessions and argues that there are good reasons why the long lag of employment in the 2001-03 recovery was special and will not be repeated this time. Recorded 9/10/09.
File Size 16.5 MB Time 57;34 Listen
NEC #108: Outlook on Securities Market Reform
James Overdahl, Chief Economist, Securities & Exchange Commission. The Office of Economic Analysis is the chief advisor to the Commission and its staff on all economic issues associated with the SECís regulatory and enforcement activities.†With Congress and the Administration†continuing to look at financial regulatory reform, Dr. Overdahl plans to discuss the Commissionís role in the U.S. financial regulatory architecture as well as the Commissionís regulatory process. Recorded 8/6/09.
File Size 16.1 MB, Time 56:17 Listen
NEC #107: Update on the Downturn
Stephen Fuller, George Mason University. The recession is 20 months old and showing signs of abating. What are these signs and how should they be interpreted? How is the Washington area economy doing compared to the US economy and what is the outlook for the coming year? What kind of recovery is likely and how will we know when normalcy is back? These are the questions that will be addressed in this presentation.
File size 16 MB, Time 56:48 Listen
NEC #106: Is the Economic Stimulus Working?
Ken Simonson, Associated General Contractors. The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act puts more money into construction at one time than any bill in U.S. history, along with a variety of tax cuts and financial aid to states and individuals. What are the results so far? What can be expected? What else should be done to stimulate the economy?The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act puts more money into construction at one time than any bill in U.S. history, along with a variety of tax cuts and financial aid to states and individuals. What are the results so far? What can be expected? What else should be done to stimulate the economy?
File Size 18 MB. Time 1:02:41 Listen
NEC #105: Science in the Cause of Air Power: Basic Research in the Air Force
Mark J. Lewis, American Institute of Aeronautics. The United States Air Force began as a technology service, and from its beginnings has had a close relationship with the international research community. How that relationship has evolved, and how it impacts the Air Force mission, will be considered. This talk will review the role of basic research in the Air Force and the Department of Defense as a whole. The mission and operation of military scientists and engineers will be discussed, as well as challenges and opportunities for basic and applied research applied to Air Force needs. The impact of DoD support on the overall conduct of research around the world will also be considered. Recorded July 16, 2009.
File Size 16.4 MB Time 57:08 Listen
NEC #104: Green Jobs and Patent Protection: The Clean Technologist Case for Consistent Policymaking
Dr. Robert Shapiro,Chair, ecoIDEA Institute.The Obama Administration is pursuing with full speed an economic agenda to promote, fund and incentivize new clean energy technologies to create jobs, diversify our energy sources, and reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Virtually all of the innovations currently in development, and those likely to come in the future, have been funded through markets that project returns based on established intellectual property rights. Will these IP rights enjoy similar privileges in the international marketplace? In the U.S., will the protracted debate on patent reform hinder clean technology innovation and job creation? Recorded 7/9/2009.
File Size 16.9 MB Time 58:58 Listen
NEC #103: Healthcare and Small Business: Problems and Fixes
Robert Graboyes, National Federation of Independent Business. American healthcare is great, except when it's not. And when it's not, chances are it is especially bad for small business owners and their employees. Dr. Graboyes discusses how the small group market malfunctions in a largely outstanding healthcare system. He also discusses some of the reform proposals currently circulating. Recorded 6/23/2009.
File Size 16.4 MB Time 57:18 Listen
NEC #102: If You Only Knew, What We Know About America's Solid Waste Industry
Bruce Parker, President and CEO of the National Solid Waste Management Association, talks about his industry. Recorded 6/18/2009.
File Size 17.3 MB Time 1:00:10 Listen
NEC #101: Distressed Systemically Important Financial Institutions - Is FDIC Receivership the Best Solution?
Robert Bliss, School of Business, Wake Forest University. A look at the new facts from this financial crisis, an overview of bankruptcy and insolvency, and a look at the relevant aspects of Treasury's proposal. Recorded 6/11/2009.
File Size 17.9 MB, Time 1:02:57 Listen
NEC #100: Innovation Economics: A 21st Century Alternative to the Neo-Classical
Robert Atkinson, President, Information Technology and Innovation Foundation. Over the last two decades, a range of scholarly work has questioned the neo-classical economic doctrine. Dr. Atkinson will speak on the emerging framework of “innovation economics” and its policy implications. Recorded 6/4/2009.
File Size 15.9 MB, Time 55:17 Listen
NEC #99: The Economic Naturalist's Field Guide
Robert Frank, Visiting Scholar, NYU Stern School. The economic bonfire fueled mostly by consumption in recent years has ended and it looks unlikely we’ll return to the boom-times in the foreseeable future. But would we want to? Robert Frank will discuss a future in which we consume less than at the peak of the boom yet enjoy far better opportunities to construct fulfilling lives for ourselves.
File Size 15.5 MB Time 53:34 Listen
NEC #98: The Financial Crisis and the Policy Response
Philip Swagel, University of Chicago. Phillip Swagel, former Assistant Secretary for Economic Policy at the Treasury under Hank Paulson, discusses the policy response to the financial crisis, including the constraints and tradeoffs involved in the policymaking process. Recorded May 21, 2009
File Size 17 MB Time 59:18 Listen
NEC #97: Back to the future? The Chinese economic stimulus program in a not-too-distant mirror
Mark DeWeaver, Principal, Quantrarian Capital Management. Dr. DeWeaver will discuss the likely impact of China’s current economic stimulus policies. He will argue the program is similar in many respects to China’s policies during the 1997-98 financial crisis and likely will have even more limited impact than the earlier program.
File size 15.5 MB Time 54:26 Listen
NEC #96: The Budget, Health Care Reform and the Economy
Wendell Primus, Senior Policy Advisor for Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi, will discuss issues surrounding the major policy debates now taking place. Recoreded 5/7/2009.
File Size 16.4 MB Time 56:59 Listen
NEC#95: The Future of Financial Regulation: A View from the Group of Thirty
Stuart Mackintosh, Executive Director of the Group of Thirty, will discuss Financial Reform: A Framework for Financial Stability, and the philosophy behind and form of the Group of Thirty’s proposed reforms of the global financial system. The G30 project, led by Paul Volcker, addresses gaps in the system of supervision; strengthening of financial regulation; enhancing standards and reinforcing financial infrastructure. Mackintosh will also discuss the need to reform the international and US structures of regulation, and the possible international and domestic architectural changes that may emerge in the months ahead. Recorded 4/30/2009.
File Size 15.5 MB Time 54:02 Listen
NEC #94: A Conversation on the Automobile Industry
Cody Lusk, President,
American International Automobile Dealers Association (AIADA). Today, automakers, their suppliers and dealerships generate nearly two million U.S. jobs. International automobile dealers sell 46 percent of all cars and trucks purchased annually in the United States; of these, 60 percent are produced in the U.S. International automakers have invested over $36 billion in U.S. – based vehicle manufacturing plants and other facilities – with billions more on the way. Mr. Lusk will present his
views on the resilience of the global auto industry, and its impact on our economy. Recorded 4/23/09.
File Size 16 MB Time 55:44 Listen
NEC #93: Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Technology Investments: An Economic Development Opportunity and the Climate Imperative"
John A. “Skip” Laitner is the
Director of Economic Analyssi,
American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy (ACEEE)
File Size 16.2 MB Time 56:18 Listen
NEC #92: Securities Markets and Regulatory Reform
Dr. Eric Sirri, the Director of the Division of Trading and Markets at the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission is responsible to the Commission for the administration of matters relating to the regulation of stock and option exchanges, national securities associations, brokers, dealers, clearing agencies, and credit rating agencies. With Congress and the Administration looking at financial regulatory reform in the midst of this economic downturn, Dr. Sirri will discuss the Commission’s role in the U.S. financial regulatory architecture, including its role in the future regulation of broker-dealers, credit rating agencies, and exchanges, as well as a discussion of short selling and the uptick rule. Recorded 4/9/2009
File Size 16.2 MB Time 56:29 Listen
NEC #91: Housing and Mortgage Market Update
Frank Nothaft, Chief Economist at Freddie Mac, will examine and review trends and developments in the housing and mortgage markets together with projections for the coming year. Recorded 4/2/2009
File Size 17.2 MB Time 1:00:14 Listen
NEC#90: "Changes in U.S. Family Finances from 2004 to 2007: Evidence from the Survey of Consumer Finances"
Traci Mach, Economist, Microeconomic Surveys Section, Division of Research and Statistics, at The Federal Reserve Board will review changes in the financial condition of US families during the period from 2004-2007, including developments in assets, liabilities and debt payments and provide insight to these changes. Recorded 3/26/09.
File Size 16.6 MB Time 57:49 Listen
NEC #89: "The Outlook for Tax Reform and the Treatment of Income From Capital"
Jane Gravelle, Congressional Research Service.Once fiscal stimulus is addressed, there are longer term tax issues, which include the treatment of capital income in general and of the corporate tax. In the 110th Congress, the Administration held a special conference on the corporate tax and Chairman Rangel introduced a bill that would reduce the corporate rate in exchange for base broadening including provisions that affect foreign source income. The corporate tax was also an focus of concern in a global economy. President Obama has indicated a concern about deferral and international taxation. This talk will discuss the outlook for taxation of capital income, including the corporate tax, and the treatment of dividends and capital gains. Recorded 3/12/2009.
File Size 16.7 MB Time 58:41 Listen
NEC #88: Post-Communist Perspective on the Global Financial Crisis and the Lessons Learned
Jan Winiecki (a former adviser to Lech Walesa, Poland's past president) will present his view on global financial crisis and its real causes. He believes this is largely associated with highly risky monetary policies of the Federal Reserve and other economic social policies of the U.S. government. The recession engulfing the Western world is a natural phenomenon made worse by earlier policy interventions. Therefore, Professor Winiecki argues that its outcomes in the short-to-medium term (1-2 to 5-6 years) will be more damaging, as stagflation is highly probable. And all the more so, as reckless present policies of the U.S. government and the majority of other governments are to engender the usual consequences of unstable growth and inflation. In a world engulfed by a recession, a number of countries from East-Central Europe stand out as doing relatively better in terms of economic growth and some other indicators. These countries have certain common characteristics, which Professor Winiecki believes has kept them in better shape and moved them to pursue policies quite different from what seems to be the norm elsewhere. Recorded 3/5/2009
File Size 16 MB Time 55:35 Listen
NEC #87: FDIC’s Q4 Banking Industry Results and FDIC Policy Initiatives
Richard Brown, chief economist for the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., will discuss the recent performance of the US banking industry and the FDIC’s policy initiatives. Recorded 2/27/2009
File Size 15.6 MB Time 54:29 Listen
NEC #86: Employment Prospects for Aging Boomers
Richard Johnson, Urban Institute. Working longer is often seen as the key to retirement security. By delaying retirement, workers receive more earnings, accumulate more Social Security and pension credits, increase their ability to save, and shorten the period over which their savings must be spread. Yet, questions remain about how long older adults will remain in the labor force. Many workers develop health problems as they age that limit their work ability, and many employers may be reluctant to hire older workers. The recession complicates older adults’ job search, sending the unemployment rate for adults 65 and older to a 31-year high in December. This seminar will examine employment patterns for older workers, the industries and occupations must likely to hire them, and the impact of the current recession on their employment. Recorded 2/19/2009.
File Size 17.5 MB Time1:01:22 Listen
NEC #85: Housing and Finance--Still Searching for that New World
Dr. John Silvia is Chief Economist and Managing Director at Wachovia. He manages the Economics Group and is responsible for developing the economic outlook and risk analysis for the bank as well as the investment banking and wealth management divisions. A key focus of his presentation will be to present the dynamic aspects of the search for a new equilibrium in both the Housing and Financial markets. Recorded 2/12/09
File Size 15.6 MB Time 54:38 Listen
NEC #84: Responding to a Tough Economic Assignment
Brookings Institution senior fellow Alice Rivlin, who formerly served as Federal Reserve Vice Chair and Director of the Office of Management and Budget, will discuss the extraordinary economic policy challenges facing the next President and the next Congress. A key focus of her talk will be assessing whether policymakers can act on two fronts—responding immediately to the need to mitigate a serious recession while simultaneously reassuring financial markets of the long-term fiscal integrity of the United States. Recorded 1/29/2009.
File size 16.5 MB Time 57:26 Listen
NEC #83: How the National Science Foundation Funds Research in Economics
For several decades, the National Science Foundation has played a critical role in supporting economic research, including pivotal research by leading institutions and well known figures in economics. Yet, NSF’s importance in influencing economic research and discourse in the United States may not be widely known outside of academic circles. Its grants program in economics supports research designed to improve our understanding of the processes and institutions of the economy, and it supports research in almost every area of economics. In its selection of research projects for funding, NSF uses two general criteria of scientific merit: intellectual merit and the broader impacts of the proposed activities. Dr. Lutz will discuss these criteria and the effects they have had in promoting economic research. Recorded 1/15/2009.
File Size 17.6 MB Time 1:01:28 Listen
NEC #82: The Global Financial Crisis
Morris Goldstein, the Dennis Weatherston Senior Fellow at the Peterson Institute of International Economics, discusses the global financial crisis. Recorded 12/18/08.
File Size 17.2 MB Time 59:55 Listen
NEC#81: Whatever It Takes: Outlook for the U.S. Economy and Monetary Policy
Laurence Meyer, Vice Chairman, Macroeconomic Advisers Former Federal Reserve Governor Laurence Meyer, currently vice chairman and director of Macroeconomic Advisers, returns to the NEC to discuss the outlook the US economic policy, as well as prospects for US monetary and fiscal policy in a period of intense economic turmoil. Recorded 1/8/09
File Size 16.7 MB Time 58:02 Listen
NEC #80: An Update on Small Business
Chad Moutray, the Chief Economist and Director of Research at the U.S. Small Business Administration's Office of Advocacy will discuss the current state of the economy for small businesses against the backdrop of the financial and economic crisis. In addition, he will address a variety of challenges and opportunities facing small business owners in the current climate and moving forward over the next few years. Recorded 12/11/08
File Size 15.9 MB Time: 55:29 Listen
NEC #79: Statistical Significance is Essentially Meaningless (at the 5 % Level)
Deirdre McCloskey, University of Illinois, Chicago. Deirdre McCloskey and Stephen Ziliak have been arguing for some years that accepted practices in econometrics are mistaken. In their current book, The Cult of Statistical Significance: How the Standard Error Costs Jobs, Justice, and Lives (U of Michigan Press, 2008) they present the full case, drawing on examples from medicine, psychology, and economics. They note that the very simple point is not original. It has been made repeatedly by hundreds of the best statistical theorists and practitioners (Savage, Friedman, Zellner, Kruskal, Heckman) over the past century. And yet users of statistics continue to kill patients and misadvise governments. Why? Recorded 12/4/2008
File Size 19.8 MB. Time 1:08:14 Listen
NEC #78: The Nature of U.S.-China Trade in Advanced Technology Products
Based on a recent paper, Dr. Michael Ferrantino of the International Trade Commission will discuss the classification of ATP trade in both China and the United States and the development of both countries’ ATP trade classification systems. Differences in these systems are shown to reflect different policy considerations in the two countries, with China adopting a broader definition of ATP to promote exports. He will also address the emerging U.S.-China ATP trade patterns from 1996 to 2006, based on the reconciled ATP trade statistics. The emergence of China as a major supplier to the U.S. ATP market is closely associated with a combination of three major factors: fragmentation of global production, China’s comparative advantage in manufactures, and Chinese government preference policies to processing trade and foreign invested enterprises. Recorded 11/20/2008
File Size 17.4 MB Time 1:00:34 Listen
NEC #77: Employer Health Costs in a Global Economy
The United States spends more on health care than any other nation, but evidence shows that we are not getting our money's worth in terms of health outcomes. Moreover, many people remain uninsured. And there's that demographic time bomb as well. Soaring health care costs must be contained -- but how? Health economist Dr. Len Nichols will outline the problems as well as some possible solutions to tackle one of the most formidable challenges facing our nation. Recorded 11/14/2008
File Size 16 MB, Time 55:41 Listen
NEC#76: The Morning After the Morning After: Outlook for the Budget
Noted fiscal policy expert Stan Collender returns to the NEC "the morning after the morning after" to talk about what the outcome of the elections means for fiscal policy and the budgetary outlook as the nation faces an unprecedented combination of short-term and long-term fiscal challenges. Recorded 11/6/2008.
File Size 18.6 MB; Time 1:04:50; Listen
NEC #75: "How Do Retirees Go About Cracking Open the Retirement Nest Egg?"
Sarah Holden, Investment Company Institute. With $4.5 trillion in defined contribution plans, $4.7 trillion in IRAs, and the Baby Boom generation headed into retirement, many observers wonder will this money be managed successfully. The Investment Company Institute (ICI) has a comprehensive research program to analyze Americans' financial activities surrounding retirement. Sarah Holden will share recent ICI household survey results that explore the accumulation and "decumulation" activities of IRA owners and recent retirees. Recorded 10/30/2008.
File Size 14.2 MB; Time 49:35 Listen
NEC #74: Futurecast: How Superpowers, Populations and Globalization will Change the Way You Live and Work
What will the world look like in the year 2020? How will the forces of globalization, aging societies and the rise of American dominance shape the future world order? How can economic policy prepare for the monumental changes to come? Former Undersecretary of Commerce for Economic Affairs Robert Shapiro will address these critical issues, drawing on his recent book by the same title.
File Size: 17.3 MB; Time 1:00:36 Listen
NEC #73: Challenges of Monetary Policymaking in Emerging Economies
Governor Zdenek Tuma of the Czech National Bank will place monetary management in the context of transition to capitalism, disinflation, financial system development and privatization, fast economic growth, and European integration. Such a multitude of constraints and objectives calls for policies that often are a balancing act among competing priorities. Add to this the sometimes fragile institutions and inflation expectations that are difficult to gauge, and the governor’s job emerges as particularly daunting. Members will have a unique opportunity to query a respected head of a successful central bank. Recorded 10/9.
File Size: 16.3 MB; Time 57:01 Listen
NEC #72: A Debate on the Economic Policies of John McCain and Barack Obama
Douglas Holtz-Eakin, McCain Campaign and former CBO Director; Jared Bernstein, Economic Policy Institute and informal advisor to the Obama Campaign. Recorded 9/23.
File Size19.6 MB; Time 1:08:27 Listen
NEC #71: The Next Round of the Trade and Wages Debate
Josh Bivens, Economic Policy Institute. The debate over the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) sparked a long literature on the impact of international trade on American wage inequality. This debate is sometimes characterized as having concluded that trade could not be a major factor in explaining the large increase in wage inequality observed in the 1980s. This presentation argues (1) this characterization is too sanguine about the findings of this first round, and, (2) findings from this first round are now clearly obsolete, as trade flows with poorer trading partners have accelerated in importance over the past 15 years. It provides new estimates for trade's impact on wage inequality, and, explores some new issues being raised in this debate.
File Size 17.2 MB Time 1:00:11 Listen
NEC #70: Financial Shock
Mark Zandi, Chief Economist, Moody's Economy.com. The subprime mortgage loan shock is arguably at the heart of what has become the most severe US financial crisis since the Great Depression. Based on his new book on the topic, Mark Zandi will address how mortgage lenders, investment bankers, builders, regulators, and the Fed caused one of the most devastating global economic disasters in history and what can be done to prevent the next financial crisis.
File Size 14.9 MB Time 52:04 Listen
NEC #69: The Surge in Fuel and Food Prices: Macroeconomic Impact and Policy Responses
Dr. Thomas Hebling, Advisor, Research Department, International Monetary Fund. There is no question that rising commodity prices are putting a strain on the global economy. Dr. Helbling will present the IMF's recent findings with respect to the impact of higher food and fuel prices on inflation, balance of payments, fiscal positions and living standards in a number of developed and developing countries -- and what policies are best (and worst) suited to respond to the situation.
File Size 16.1 MB Time 56:07 Listen
NEC #68: Update on the US Economy
Dr. Donald Marron, Member, Council of Economic Advisers, presents an update on the outlook for the US economy. Recorded 7/31/2008.
File Size 16.5 MB Time 57:29 Listen
NEC #67: Fiscal Policy in the Presidential Election
President, Committee for a Fiscally Responsible Budget, will discus the major tax and spending policies from the campaigns and their fiscal impact, as well as fiscal policy in the 2008 Presidential Campaign. Recorded 7/24/08.
File size 17.7 MB Time 1:01:51 Listen
NEC #66: "The Economic Outlook
Dr. Jeffrey Lacker, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, discusses the challenges facing the economy and Federal Reserve actions taken during a time of market uncertainty. Recorded 7/8/2008.
File Size 14.7 MB Time 51:13 Listen
NEC #65: The Price Isn't Right: The FY 2009 Budget Initiative to Modernize the CPI
Michael Horrigan, Associate Commissioner, Office of Prices and Living Conditions, Bureau of Labor Statistics
Discussant: Bill Wascher, Associate Director, Division of Research and Statistics, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve. Recorded 6/26/2008.
File Size 17.1 MB Time 59:51 Listen
NEC #64: New Evidence on Trends in Income Mobility
U.S. Department of Treasury, Office of Tax Analysis, looks at findings from recent work based on IRS data. Recorded 6/19/2008.
File Size 12.8 MB Time 43:55 Listen
NEC#63: Ecological Economics- The Science of Sustainability
Sabine O'Hara, Executive Director of the Council for International Exchange of Scholars, talks about "Ecological Economics- The Science of Sustainability. Recorded June 12, 2008.
File Size18.3 MB Time 1:03:43 Listen
NEC #62: Annual NABE President's Lecture, Credit Market Developments: Implications for the Global Economy
Credit and broader financial markets have undergone substantial innovation in recent years. Ellen Hughes-Cromwick, President of NABE and Chief Economist of Ford Motor Company, will explore some dimensions of these financial developments and their implications for the global economy.
File Size 12.5 MB Time 54:43 Listen
NEC #61: In Over Our Heads? The State of Household Balance Sheets
Senior Vice President, Research and Statistics Group, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, looks at trends in household wealth and debt following all the turmoil in financial markets. Recorded May 29, 2008.
File Size 13.9 MB Time 1:00:47 Listen
NEC #60: This Time Is Different: A Panoramic View of Eight Centuries of Financial Crisis
Professor, University of Maryland School of Public Policy, looks at the Big Picture - Eight Centuries worth of financial crises. Recorded May 23, 2008.
File Size 14.9 MB Time 1:05:11 Listen
NEC #59: Getting Serious about Renewing and Modernizing Public Education
Cynthia Brown, Director of Education Policy, Center for American Progress looks at various educational reform measures. Recorded May 15, 2008.
File size 14.6 MB Time 1:04:01 Listen
NEC #58: Where is Europe Heading?”
Chief Economist, Credit Agricole SA gives a talk on the future direction of the Euro and the European economy. This talk was given in conjunction with the Embassy of France. Recorded May 8, 2008.
File size 17.8 MB Time 1:00:58 Listen
NEC #57: NAFTA at 14: Why the Uproar?
Senior Fellow, Peterson Institute for International Economics. Fourteen years after it has been enacted, NAFTA has become a hot campaign issue in this Presidential election. Gary Hufbauer of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, looks at the data and the issues. Recorded May 1, 2008.
File size: 20.0 MB. Time 58:16. Listen
NEC#56: Strings Attached? The Economics and Politics of Sovereign Wealth Funds
Managing Director, The Lindsey Group. Global leaders continue to debate the pros and cons of investment activity by Sovereign Wealth Funds (SWFs). These large, government-owned pools of capital are gaining prominence in countries such as China, Saudi Arabia, Russia and Kuwait. SWFs have grown tremendously in recent years and currently manage about $2.5 trillion. Former Under Secretary of Treasury for International Affairs, Tim Adams, brings an insider's perspective from both the policy and private capital worlds to many of the issues. He will shed light on the current global policy debate, including possible regulation and domestic political constraints. Recorded 4/24/08.
File size: 15.5 MB. Time 54:25. Listen
NEC #55: Comparisons of Multifactor Productivity in the Transportation Industries
Anthony Apostolides, Department of Transportation. Measuring and comparing productivity in services has been perennially difficult. It is particularly complicated in transportation, where the capital contribution is vital. The presentation will showcase trends and comparisons of multifactor productivity since 1987 across several dimensions: among various transportation modes, and between transportation and other sectors of the economy. The methodology is based on the Tornqvist Index. Recorded 4/17/2008
File Size 15.5 MD Time 54:03 Listen
NEC #54: Restructuring Financial Regulation
Managing Director, The Carlyle Group. The Treasury Department is scheduled to issue a report that will set an agenda for regulatory reform legislation over the next several years. There is widespread agreement that financial regulation is overly complex, inefficient, and prone to arbitrage and coverage gaps. Until recently, change was considered impossible. However, distress in the US financial sector has created a political environment in which fundamental regulatory restructuring may in fact be possible. With the release of the Treasury Department report, both industry and Congress are preparing to engage seriously on the issue. What should be the objective of such a reform? Should the focus be on the institutional structure or on regulatory mandate? What is the proper balance between the benefits of regulatory competition and the costs of regulatory fragmentation? Randal Quarles, former Under Secretary of the Treasury who led the Treasury Department's effort in the coordination of the President's Working Group on Financial Markets, addresses these issues. Recorded 4/3/2008.
File Size 13.2 MB Time 57:45 (MP3)
NEC #53: The Mortgage and Housing Market Outlook
Frank Nothaft, Chief Economist, Freddie Mac. The housing market is undergoing its sharpest decline in more than 50 years. Mortgage finance has been shaken by widespread default on subprime and nontraditional loans. Economists only now begin to probe for the depth of the crisis as new data come out. When will the mortgage sector reach bottom? What will the next two years look like? Frank Nothaft, one of the most knowledgeable economists on the mortgage and housing market, discusses these issues. Recorded 3/27/08.
File Size: 14.0 MB Time: 1:01:21 (MP3)
NEC #52: “How Should We Treat R & D Expenditures in National Accounts? New Thinking from the BEA”
Carol A. Robbins,
Bureau of Economic Analysis, Department of Commerce. In the U.S. national accounts, research and development expenditures (R & D) are treated as expense for business and as consumption for government and non-profits. As part of its work to improve the measurement of intangibles in the economy, the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis is developing supplementary estimates known as satellite accounts. Satellite accounts show the impact that capitalized R & D expenditures would have on the various aggregates of the U.S. national accounts. The presentation touches upon measurement issues and provides tentative estimates of impact on saving and investment for 13 sectors of the economy. Recorded 3/20/08.
File Size 12.2 MB Time: 52:57 (MP3)
NEC #51: "Measuring Innovation in the 21st Century Economy"
Under Secretary of Commerce Cynthia Glassman will explain the findings of the recently-released Advisory Group Report on Measuring Innovation in the 21st Century Economy. The United States is more than 75 percent wealthier in terms of real GDP per capita today than it was 30 years ago. Innovation, the major driver of productivity gains behind the growth in real wealth, is the key factor in this trend. However, because innovation has been difficult to understand and measure, policies to foster it have so far been limited. The new report recommends steps that should be taken to measure innovation. Dr. Steve Landefeld, Director of the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis, and Joseph Kennedy, Chief Economist, will share the
podium to discuss implementation of the report.Recorded 3/13/08
File Size 11.6 MB Time: 50:39 (MP3)
NEC #50: "The Economics of Renewable Energy"
Member of the German Parliament and
Chairman of the World Council for Renewable Energy (WCRE). Dr. Scheer is
one of the major world figures in renewable energy policy. The British newspaper The Guardian recently
named him as "one of the 50 people who could save the planet". Dr. Scheer was a force behind the adoption of
Germany's revolutionary National Renewable Energy Act, which provided a major boost for German industries
specializing in renewable energy technologies. Solar energy production and use has accelerated and currently
provides an estimated 3% of Germany's energy - remarkable in a climate not known for its year-round
sunshine. Our prominent speaker is also a prolific author, whose most recent books include "Energy
Autonomy: The Economic, Social and Technological Case for Renewable Energy" and "The Solar Economy:
Renewable Energy for a Sustainable Global Future". Recorded 3/6/08
File Size 19.2 MB. Time 1:23:31 (MP3)
NEC #49: “The Economic Report of the President”
The Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors, Ed Lazear, presents the 2008 Economic Report of the President, shedding light on the key analysis and findings of one of the Administration's most important economic documents of the year. Recorded 2/28/08.
File Size 13.1 MB, Time 45:35 (MP3)
NEC #48 Technical difficulties are delaying the podcast of Rakesh Kochhar, "U.S. Immigration: Demographics and the Workplace"
NEC #47: US Productivity Growth is Slower, Europe's is Faster: What Does this Tell Us?
Martin Baily, Senior Fellow, The Brookings Institution. Since the mid 1990s, we have been accustomed to seeing rapid productivity growth in the US, fueled, it is said, by high-tech investment. Europe has been slow to adopt new technologies, has rigid labor markets and has had slow growth. Recently, however, there has been a role reversal. Is this cyclical or does the European economic model work better than we thought? Martin Baily, Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors from 1999-2001, will present the findings of his recent analysis. Recorded 2/14/2008.
File Size 19.9 MB; Time 57:43. (MP3)
NEC #46: “The Credit Crunch: The Impact on the Economy ”
Vincent Reinhart, Resident Scholar, American Enterprise Institute. Financial markets remain squeezed by a lack of capital, uncertainty over the extent of subprime-related losses and where they are, and the Fed's ability to understand the nature of the crisis and take appropriate action. Vincent Reinhart, who, until recently, served as secretary and economist of the Federal Open Market Committee and Director of the Fed's Division of Monetary Affairs, will give his take on the credit crunch and evaluate the Fed's handling of the situation. Recorded 2/8/2008.
File Size 19.8 MB; Time 57:45. (MP3)
NEC #45: "CBO's 2008 Budget & Economic Outlook"
CBO Director Peter Orszag discusses the Congressional Budget Office's new 2008 Budget and Economic Outlook, the annual report that kicks off the congressional budget process each year. He walks through the agency's newest set of baseline budget projections and explain what path CBO analysts believe the economy will take in 2008 and beyond. Dr. Orszag's presentation of the CBO report comes a few days ahead of President Bush's scheduled submission to Congress of his FY 2009 budget proposal. Recorded 1/31/2008.
File Size: 16.6 MB. Time 57:41. (MP3)
NEC #44: “Recession or Soft Landing? The 2008 US Economic Forecast”
Laurence H. Meyer, Macroeconomic Advisers, looks at the impact of the ongoing housing market correction and the turmoil in credit and financial markets. Will this push the US economy into recession, or can it somehow still achieve a "soft landing" in 2008? Former Fed Governor Larry Meyer will present his up-to-date forecast, complete with insights into future Federal Reserve policy.
File Size: 15.4 MB. Time: 53:35.
NEC #43: “What Do Unions Want from Fringe Benefits?”
The domestic automobile industry has been buffeted by seismic changes in the last few years. Companies and unions have responded by changing the very nature of the employer-employee contract. The extent to which this stabilizes employment and market share remains to be seen, but its consequences extend well beyond one industry. Alan Reuther, the nephew of Walter Reuther, discusses a few of the radical provisions in the new UAW contracts (such as VEBAs or Voluntary Employee Benefit Associations and two-tiered wage structures) and what these mean for the labor market. Recorded 1/10/2008.
Time: 51:27. File size: 14.8 MB (MP3)
NEC #42: Can Consumer-Directed Health Care Improve the Quality of Health Care?
Tony Lo Sasso, Associate Professor of Economics, University of Illinois-Chicago. Dr. Lo Sasso discusses whether the rise in Health Savings Accounts has begun to have a tangible impact on how people purchase health care and, in turn, whether such a change can improve health care. Recorded 12/20/2007.
Time: 1:06:28. File Size: 19.1 MB. (MP3)
NEC Podcast #41: Should Corporate Income Mirror the Income Reported for Tax Purposes?
Michelle Hanlon, Associate Professor of Accounting, University of Michigan. A common complaint made about corporate accounting is that any resemblance between the profit reported to the government for tax purposes and what is shown to shareholders is merely a coincidence. While numerous countries have made steps to make these two statements resemble one another, the U.S. has thus far resisted any urge to do the same, and Dr. Hanlon believes that it is probably for the best. She will explain why the “book-tax conformity” movement should die an ignominious death. Recorded 12/13/07
Time: 48:15. File Size: 13.9 MB. (MP3)
NEC Podcast #40: The Conspiracy of Ignorance About Oil: A Wall Street Perspective
Paul Sankey is a managing director on the highly regarded Deutsche Bank oil team on Wall Street. He covers 36 major (and minor) oil stocks and MLPs. He was previously an oil consultant with Edinburgh consultancy Wood Mackenzie, and started his career at the International Energy Agency in Paris. Recorded December 6, 2008.
Time: 59:00. File Size 16.9 MB. (MP3)
NEC Podcast #39: The Dormant Commerce Clause and the Balkanization of the Municipal Bond Market
Alan D. Viard, Resident Scholar, American Enterprise Institute. The Supreme Court will soon hear arguments in Davis v. Kentucky Department of Revenue. This case has potentially significant implications for capital markets and fiscal matters. Dr. Viard looks at the key issue in the case, in which plaintiffs content that Kentucky violates the Dormant Commerce Clause (DCC) of the Constitution by granting a selective exemption favoring within-state holdings of municipal bonds over interstate holdings. He argues that the challenged selective state income tax exemption for home-state municipal bonds functions as a trade barrier in the municipal bond market, similar to an import tariff. In his view, because the selective exemption has balkanized the municipal bond market and harmed investors, the exemption should be struck down as an obstruction of interstate commerce. Recorded November 29, 2007.
Time: 57:44. File size 16.9 MB. (MP3)
NEC Podcast #38: Productivity and Economic Development
Bill Lewis, Former managing partner McKinsey Global Institute and Author of "The Power of Productivity." Mr. Lewis’ acclaimed book demonstrated that the key to a country’s economic development lies in adopting policies that foster productivity growth, and that allowing competition in the retail market is the best way to achieve high levels of productivity.
Time: 1:05:33. File Size 19.2 MB. (MP3)
NEC Podcast #37: The Tyranny of the Market - Why You Can't Always Get What You Want
Joel Waldfogel, Ehrenkranz Family Professor and Chair, The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania. In our continuing attempt to feature thoughtful speakers from beyond the Beltway, the NEC features well-known and highly respected economist Joel Waldfogel from The Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania discussing his new book “The Tyranny of the Market: Why You Can’t Always Get What You Want”. Dr. Waldfogel looks at the long-held view by economists that markets rather than government should be relied upon to decide a wide range of questions. He argues that, with markets, you can’t always get what you want.
Time: 1:02:04. File Size 21.4 MB. (MP3)
NEC Podcast #36 : “The Tax Code We Deserve: What the Inevitable Reform of 2010 Should Look Like”
Jason Furman, Director of the Hamilton Project and Senior Fellow, The Brookings Institution and Kevin Hassett, Director of Economic Studies, American Enterprise Institute. Preview the tax policy debate in next year’s Presidential election and beyond. Two of the most influential economists in the policy arena, coming from different sides of the political aisle, debate and discuss the changes to the tax code that a new Administration will most likely address. Recorded November 1, 2007.
Time: 1:05:50. File Size 18.9 MB. (MP3)
NEC Podcast #35: "The Myth of the Rational Voter"
Bryan Caplan, George Mason University. As teachers, economists have long assumed that their students start with serious misconceptions about economics, and tried to correct them. As researchers, however, economists assume that voters correctly understand economics, at least on average. Dr. Caplan argues that the teachers are right and the researchers are wrong. Recorded October 25, 2007.
Time: 55:11. File size 15.7 MB. (MP3)
NEC Podcast #34: "Politico-Economic Determinants of American Trade Policy Attitudes"
Michael Hoffman, Government Accountability Office. Voting behavior and constituent attitudes are central to the process of trade policy determination. Examining the demographic and economic variables that are associated with attitudes toward various trade policies can provide some insight into the public perception of globalization, and the political response to those perceptions. Using detailed response and demographic data from the Program on International Policy Attitudes survey *Americans on Globalization, Trade, and Farm
Subsidies* the speaker assess a number of potential determinants of trade policy attitudes. Educational attainment is most clearly associated with pro-trade attitudes, and party affiliation suggests a certain malleability of opinion on trade issues. In addition, there is substantial variation in the determinants of trade policy attitudes across policy variables. Recorded October 11, 2007.
Time: 1:06:30; File Size 19.6 MB (MP3)
NEC Podcast #33: “Social Security and Marginal Returns to Work Near Retirement”
Deputy Commissioner, Social Security Administration. Some analysts have suggested that longer work lives may improve retirement preparation in light of increased life expectancies and lower saving and pension coverage. Social Security levies one of the largest taxes on working households and provides one of the largest sources of income to retirees, and so the interaction between its tax and benefit formulas can affect incentives to remain in the workforce at older ages. Using the Social Security Administration’s MINT (Modeling Income in the Near Term) model, which utilizes matched SIPP data (Survey of Income and Program Participation sponsored by the Census Department) and Social
Security earnings records, Dr. Biggs, the number two at the Social Security Administration, presents work calculating the marginal return paid to an additional year of employment at the end of the individual’s work life. Dr. Biggs also looks at various policy changes designed to improve incentives to work under Social Security. Recorded 10/3/2007.
Time 1:00:45; File Size 20.8 MB (MP3)
NEC Podcast #32: “Health Policy: What We Think We Know That Just Isn’t So; What We Don’t Want to Know; What We Need to Know; and Where We Ought to Go”
American Enterprise Institute. Formerly a senior health economist for the Joint Economic Committee, Mr. Miller is now studying health care policy and regulation for AEI. Slideshow available. Recorded 9/27/2007.
Time: 57:01; File size: 19.6 MB (MP3)
NEC Podcast #31: “Building Automatic Solvency into U.S. Social Security: Insights from Sweden and Germany”
James C. Capretta, Fellow, Ethics and Public Policy Center. Although Social Security reform appears to be off of the national agenda for now, real funding problems remain for America's popular retirement program that policymakers need to address. In recent years, both Germany and Sweden have been able to put in place innovative approaches to solving pressing financial crises in their pay-as-you-go pension systems. Ideally, U.S. policymakers will reach a consensus on Social Security solvency reforms. Sweden and Germany have shown that it is possible and desirable to put in place provisions that can automatically self-correct underfunding of pay-as-you-go pension systems. Mr. Capretta will discuss these national proposals. Recorded 9/20/2007
Time: 55:43; File size: 19.1 MB (MP3)
NEC Podcast #30: “Intelligence and National Economic Performance”
George Mason University. A nation's average IQ score has an extremely robust relationship with long-term economic performance. At the same time, large differences in IQ predict only small differences in wages within countries. Thus, intelligence appears to matter more for groups than for individuals. Why is this so? Dr. Jones will explore two possibilities: that an intelligent workforce is better at adopting frontier technology; or that smarter citizens are better at cooperating in non-market settings. Recorded 9/12/2007
Time 53:24; File Size 19.1 MB (MP3)
NEC Podcast #29: “U.S. Productivity: Past, Present and Future”
Robert D. Atkinson, Ph.D.,
Information Technology and Innovation Foundation. Over the last decade, U.S. productivity growth rebounded to post-World War II levels, bringing with it faster economic growth and increased prosperity. However, productivity growth has lagged recently. Rob Atkinson, noted technology expert and well-respected adviser to state and national policymakers, will discuss what we know about the sources of the post-1995 productivity pick-up, what is happening currently with productivity growth, and possible trends in productivity growth over the next decade. He will also discuss why boosting productivity growth is the central economic challenge of our time and why and how public policies can spur productivity so that all Americans benefit. Recorded 9/7/07
Time: 33:33; File Size 19.7 MB (MP3)
NEC Podcast #28: "The US Economic Outlook"
Dr. Edward Lazear, Chair, Council of Economic Advisors returns to the NEC podium to discuss the U.S. economic outlook, with emphasis on the following key indicators: real GDP, consumer sentiment, housing, inflation, labor market trends (particularly wage growth and the unemployment rate), energy issues, and entitlement spending. Slideshow available. (To improve the audio quality of audience questions, the questions were repeated and included in the finished podcast.) Recorded 7/24/2007.
Time 34:35. File size 12 MB (MP3)
NEC Podcast #27: "The AMT: Why it Matters and Why it is a Hard Fix"
Leonard Burman, Senior Fellow,
Urban Institute and Director, Tax Policy Center. With a perceived mandate from the 2006 election, a main priority of the Democrats was to address the individual Alternative Minimum Tax (AMT) with its higher taxes and mind-numbing complexity. Mr. Burman will discuss the various complexities and vagaries of this politically hot topic and its effect on taxpayer decisions concerning wealth. He will examine some reform options available in the new world of PAYGO and the political environment that might make reform possible. Slideshow available for NEC members. Recorded 7/19/2007.
Time: 1:06:17. File Size 22.8 MB (MP3)
NEC Podcast #26: "The Federal Burden for Health Care Spending"
In his first NEC appearance as CBO Director, Peter Orszag outlines the critical health care problems facing the country and how Congress is examining them. He discusses the fact that rising health care costs and their consequences for federal health insurance programs constitute the nation’s central fiscal challenge. He also describes how rising costs represent a central issue for employers, who sponsor most private health insurance coverage; for patients; for enrollees; and for taxpayers, who ultimately bear the costs of health insurance and health care. Recorded July 18, 2007.
Time 59:52. File Size 20.6 MB. (MP3)
NEC Podcast #25: "Private Markets, Risk and the Housing Market Correction"
Dr. John Silvia, Chief Economist of Wachovia Corporation is a noted financial markets expert, chief economist of one of the largest US financial services holding companies and former top Capitol Hill economist. He returned to Washington to discuss how private market risk assessments have changed in recent months and the extent and significance of the housing correction on the financial side of the economy. Slideshow available for NEC members. Recorded 7/12/2007.
Time: 1:00.20. File Size 20.7 MB (MP3)
NEC Podcast #24: “The Economics, Policy, and Politics of Poverty Reduction”
Jared Bernstein, Director of the Living Standards Program, Economic Policy Institute (EPI) and
Mark Greenberg, Director, Poverty Task Force, Center for American Progress (CAP). This podcast is a very thoughtful review and analysis of poverty reduction trends and factors over the past 30 years, with recommendations on improving the current situation. In Part 1 of the two part talk, Jared Bernstein of the EPI, analyses factors in the persistent gap between movements in poverty rates and growth over the past 30 years. Based on his calculations, if the relationship between per capita GDP and the poverty rate had remained the same as in the period 1959 - 1973, the poverty rate would have fallen to well below 5% by the late 1980s. The official rate is presently 12.6%. Mr. Bernstein also discusses several alternative poverty rate measures. He looks at the impact of demographic and education changes on family poverty rates plus the effects of real low wage growth, productivity and unemployment. Details of his presentation are provided in his NEC slideshow and in the EPI flagship publication, the State of Working America, 2006/07 (http://www.stateofworkingamerica.org). In Part 2 of the talk, Mark Greenberg of CAP discusses policy recommendations for reducing poverty. He draws upon CAP's Poverty Task Force's report, "From Poverty to Prosperity: A National Strategy to Cut Poverty in Half " http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2007/04/poverty_report.html. Based on modeling by the Urban Institute, he highlights effects of key Task Force recommendations on poverty reduction. According to the Urban Institute work, if four specific policies were adopted, 9 million less people would be in poverty, the number of people living in extreme poverty (under 50% of the poverty line) would be lowered by 2 million, and the poverty rate would be reduced to 9.1%, a record low. The impact would be particularly strong on reducing child poverty, and would affect all races. The policies would include an increase in the minimum wage, an increase in the EITC, making the Child Tax Credit fully refundable, and increasing the Child and Dependent Care Tax Credit. Recorded 6/24/07.
Time: 1:08:28. File size 23.6 MB. (MP3)
NEC Podcast #23: The New Census
Dr. Cynthia Glassman returns to the NEC podium in her new capacity as Under Secretary for Economic Affairs in the Department of Commerce. She will give an overview of the American Community Survey, the new nationwide survey which will replace the long form of the decennial census in future censuses and which will provide data every year. (The long form is the part of the decennial census which obtains demographic, housing, social and economic information from a 1-in-6 sample of households.) She will also provide information about preparations for the 2010 decennial count of residents in the United States. Recorded 6/7/2007.
Time: 51:55. File size 17.8 MB (MP3)
NEC Podcast #22: Investor Disclosure: What Have We Learned
Brian Reid, Chief Economist,
The Investment Company Institute. Given the interest in disclosure at the SEC, the Department of Labor and elsewhere for mutual funds inside and outside 401(k) plans, Dr. Reid makes a timely presentation about investor disclosure. The view that more is better seems to be losing ground to more selective and tailored disclosure for the retail investor. Dr. Reid will summarize findings from ICI, the national association of US investment companies, and other research organizations about the types of information that investors use and how they want it presented.(Please note: the first five minutes have a low recording volume. )Recorded 5/31/2007.
Time: 53:47. File size 18.4 MB. (MP3)
NEC Podcast #21: The Economic Naturalist
Robert Frank, Professor, Management/Economics,
Johnson School of Management, Cornell University. Why do the keypads on drive-up cash machines have Braille dots? Why are round-trip fares from Orlando to Kansas City higher than those from Kansas City to Orlando? Based on his just-released book, “The Economic Naturalist”, Dr. Frank will discuss how basic economic principles suggest plausible answers to a host of intriguing questions from everyday life. Drive-up ATM keypads have Braille dots, for example, because it’s cheaper to make the same machine for both drive-up and walk-up locations. And travelers from Kansas City to Orlando pay less because they are usually price-sensitive tourists with many choices of destination, whereas travelers from Orlando typically choose Kansas City for specific family or business reasons. Recorded 5/24/2007.
Time: 59:55. File size: 20.6 MB. (MP3)
NEC Podcast #20: Trade-Offs in Allocating Allowances for CO2 Emissions
Dr. Terry Dinan is a PhD. Economist at the Congressional Budget Office. In light of scientific evidence about the value of addressing climate change, Congress in considering legislation that would impose a cap-and-trade program to reduce carbon dioxide emissions. Such a program, like any other effort to reduce CO2 emissions, would impose costs on the economy. In addition, it would transfer significant amounts of income. She will discuss how key decisions about the design of the program would affect both the overall cost plus the distribution of that cost among households in different income categories. A slideshow is available. Recorded 5/17/2007.
Time: 53:34. File size: 24.5 MB (MP3)
NEC Podcast #19: Immigration
Steven Camarota, Director of Research at The Center for Immigration Studies, looks at trends in immigration, in illegal immigration, and their economic effects. This podcast was held in conjunction with the Society of Government Economists. Recorded 5/16/2007.
Time: 55:13. File Size:25.2 MB (MP3)
NEC Podcast #18: The Incredible Shrinking Banking Industry
Carl Tannenbaum, the President of NABE and chief economist of LaSalle Bank in Chicago looks at theprofound changes in the banking industry. What has been the impact on asset markets ? Is risk underpriced now ? (Note: LaSalle Bank is an $115 billion banking organization based in Chicago. It is part of a global network, as a subsidiary of one of the world's largest banks, the Dutch ABN AMRO. The NEC is NABE's local chapter.) Recorded 5/11/2007.
Time: 58:04. File Size 19.9 MB (MP3)
NEC Podcast #17: The Promise of Progressive Cost Consciousness in Health Care Reform
Jason Furman is the Director of the Hamilton Project at Brookings, recently established by a group of former policymakers (including former Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin), academics and business representatives. He will discuss key economic issues in health care reform, including how more effective forms of cost sharing (income-related cost sharing, for example) could restrain health spending, improve the effectiveness of health spending, and insulate families from major financial risks. Slideshow (NEC members only) Recorded 5/10/07.
Time: 47:58, File Size 16.5 MB (MP3)
NEC Podcast #16: There’s A Reason They’re Called Subprime
David Wyss, Chief Economist of Standard and Poors. Subprime mortgage holders are beginning to default. These mortgages are risky, and Standard and Poors had anticipated a rise in foreclosures and delinquencies. Losses in the 2006 vintage are expected to exceed the 5.5 percent loss rate of the 2000 vintage, previously the worst performance. Housing largely escaped the 2001 recession, so this is the first significant downturn since 1991-92. Mr. Wyss will discuss his view that the real risk is however legislative: if Congress or state legislatures try to change the rules in response to these problems, they risk damaging the housing sector. Recorded 5/4/2007.
Time: 56:15, File Size 19.3 MB (MP3)
NEC Podcast #15: Prospects for the Indian Economy
Saumitra Chaudhuri is a
Member of the Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister of India, and Economic Advisor to ICRA, an Indian rating agency associated with Moody’s. This is a rare opportunity to hear a leading expert discuss the prospects for the Indian economy. Mr. Chaudhuri has been a member of the Prime Minister’s Advisory Council since January 2005 and is a well-known commentator on India. The NEC continues to feature speakers on the global economy. Recorded 5/1/2007. Slideshow (NEC members only)
Time: 59:29; File Size 20.4 MB (MP3)
NEC Podcast #14: Prospects for Global Trade Talks and Trade Policy in the New Congress
This special edition NEC Podcast was recorded at the NABE Washington Policy Conference. It features Jeffrey Schott of the Peterson Intstitute for International Economics, and looks at the prospects for global trade talks, and what will happen to trade policy with the new Congress. Recorded 3/13/2007.
Time: 47:40. File Size 22 MB (MP3)
NEC Podcast #13: The Euro Area: Recovery and Reform?
Servaas Deroose, Director, Macroeconomy of the euro area and the EU for the European Commission’s Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs (Brussels). Euro area growth has picked up more than expected. In Washington as part of the high-level European Commission delegation attending the IMF’s spring meetings, Mr. Deroose discussed the ongoing recovery in the euro area. He addressed questions related to how solid the recovery is and how resilient growth would be if the US economy slowed. He also described the structural reforms that have been undertaken by Euro area countries in recent years as well as future reforms that need to be implemented. Commenting on his talk was Jorg Decressin of the IMF. Recorded 4/12/2007. Slideshows (NEC members only): Deroose and Decressin.
Time: 1:01:26. File Size 21.9 MB (MP3)
NEC Podcast #12: Mortgage Market Fault Line
Often quoted and relied upon for his forecasting savvy, Mark Zandi, the Chief Economist of Moody's Economy.com, discusses recent developments in the mortgage market and its outlook, with an emphasis on the subprime mortgage market. He looks at factors in the deterioration of mortgage credit quality and problems in the mortgage market from a national and regional perspective. Dr. Zandi puts the recent bankruptcy filing of New Century Financial Corporation, once a leading lender to the subprime market, in context. He analyzes the impact the deterioration in mortgage quality is likely to have on the economy and considers policy steps, including by regulators, that might be usefully taken to address the present problems. This presentation is a very informative discussion of the ins and outs of the subprime mortgage market problems. It is useful for anyone interested in housing market and credit market trends, monetary policy, the US growth and employment outlook, regional growth trends, hedge funds, and steps that might be taken to manage the situation. He also presents his view of the US economic outlook apart from the mortgage market challenge. Recorded 4/5/2007. Slideshow (NEC members only).
Time: 54:44; File Size 18.8 MB (MP3)
NEC Podcast #11: Central Bank Governance
Ellen Meade, Professor of Economics at American University, and formerly on the Federal Reserve Board staff and on the faculty at the London School of Economics, presents a major paper at the NEC lunch. Central banks have evolved significantly over the past two decades. She discusses developments in central bank independence and transparency across a wide range of countries, and briefly touches on some interesting aspects of decision-making by the FOMC and the European Central Bank’s (ECB) monetary policy committee. Her talk is based on work she has done with Christopher Crowe of the IMF which will appear in the fall edition of the Journal of Economic Perspectives. The talk provides thoughtful analysis and comments useful for Fed watchers, European Central Bank (ECB) watchers, global financial market players (including hedge funds), and regulators in the US and elsewhere. Recorded 3/30/2007. Slideshow (NEC members only)
Time: 53:44; File Size 18.4 MB (MP3)
NEC Podcast #10: International Monetary Fund Reform: Mission Possible?
This podcast features Prakash Loungani, Division Chief, Policy Communications at the
International Monetary Fund. The IMF has unleashed a reform strategy that, if successful, will equip the international organization with a new business model, a new income model and a new governance structure. Is the strategy working? In the run-up to the spring meetings of the IMF in April, Mr. Loungani discusses the current state-of-play and the outlook.Recorded 3/22/07. Slideshow (NEC members only)
Time: 1:00:33; File Size 20.7 MB (MP3)
NEC Podcast #9: Economic Analysis and Cost-Benefit Analysis: Substitutes or Complements?
Chester Spatt, Chief Economist, Securities and Exchange Commission, looks at "Economic Analysis and Cost-Benefit Analysis: Substitutes or Complements?" A recurring debate in Washington is the role of regulatory impact analyses. How should the federal government assess the impact of proposed rulemakings? How should that assessment affect decision-making? In this presentation Chester Spatt draws upon his experiences as Chief Economist of the Securities and Exchange Commission to focus upon a central issue in the policy process--the potential importance of economic analysis to the regulatory process and the relationship to traditional cost-benefit analysis. He uses several examples to highlight different aspects of this broad theme. Recorded 3/15/07 Slideshow
Time: 54:47; File Size 12.8 MB. (MP3)
NEC Podcast #8 is temporarily off-line due to some technical issues.
NEC Podcast #7: A Briefing on the Congressional Outlook
Wendell Primus, Senior Economic Adviser
to Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi, talks about the outlook for key issues in the new Congress. Among his specialties, Dr. Primus is a recognized authority on budget and health care policy issues. Recorded 3/1/07
Time: 56:16. File Size 19.4 MB (MP3)
NEC Podcast #6: Central Bank Credibility : Myths and Realities
Brian Sack, Deputy Director, Monetary Policy Insights, Macroeconomic Advisers. Despite its dry title, Brian Sack's February 22 talk at the National Economists Club presents important pioneering of new ground at the heart of the monetary policy debate by Macroeconomic Advisers, one of the top forecasting firms in the country whose co-founder is a former Federal Reserve Governor and award-winning forecaster. Macroeconomic Advisers had also done pioneering and influential work on productivity, which has been part of the basic debate over the productivity acceleration. Dr. Sack discusses the process through which the Federal Reserve anchors long-term inflation expectations, which is at the heart of monetary policy. He questions the conventional wisdom that those expectations can be easily dislodged and looks at the substantial implications of the Fed’s credibility for both the economy and financial markets. With solid Fed credibility, the Fed should be able to get more "bang for the buck" from its monetary policy moves. As a consequence, patience for Fed policy steps to work through the economy and financial system may be more appropriate than additional Fed moves at certain times - including now. Dr. Sack's timely discussion raises the possibility that risk premiums were not too small in the mid to late 1990s - an issue that is relevant for assessing financial market pricing today. The NEC talk should be of interest to Fed watchers and students concerned about monetary policy, Federal Reserve Board Chairman Bernanke, the Federal Reserve 's (FOMC's) monetary policy steps in the coming months and years, and the outlook for financial markets. To get the most from Dr. Sack's talk, NEC members can also look at his slideshow, which can be downloaded from the NEC website. Recorded 2/22/07 Slideshow (NEC members only)
Time: 58:04. File Size: 19.8 MB (MP3)
NEC Podcast #5: The President's Health Insurance Proposal
Roberton Williams of the Urban Institute examines the Bush Administration's Health Insurance Proposal. The President's proposal would remedy some problems with the current tax treatment of health insurance but would also create new ones. Discussion will sort out the various issues raised by the proposal, offer some preliminary distributional estimates of its effects, and suggest ways to remedy its shortcomings. Recorded 2/15/2007.
Time: 1:04:35. File Size: 22 MB (MP3)
Slideshow (Slideshow is for NEC members only)
NEC Podcast #4: The Healthcare Economy
Michael Mandel, the Chief Economist for Business Week, shows how Healthcare has accounted for a surprisingly large share of net job gains since the last employment peak in 2001. This pattern seems to be continuing, which could change the way we think about long-term productivity growth. Recorded 2/8/2007.
Time: 58:02. File Size 20 MB. (MP3)
Slideshow (NEC members only
NEC Podcast #3: The 2007 Budget and Economic Outlook
Deputy Director of the
Congressional Budget Office returned to the NEC to present the CBO's annual view of the baseline budget and economic situations. Recorded 2/1/2007.
Time 59:28. File Size: 13.6 MB. (MP3)
NEC Podcast #2: The SEC’s Sarbanes-Oxley Fix Needs Fixing”
Resident Fellow, American Enterprise Institute. Mr. Pollock has been a resident fellow at AEI since July 2004, focusing on financial policy issues, including government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs), Social Security reform and pension finance, accounting standards, and the issues raised by the Sarbanes-Oxley Act. His presentation on Sarbanes-Oxley covered costs, key items that need changing, and compliance and implementation issues. He described the Act’s section 404 and the SEC “Concept Release”, citing areas in need of improvement, and outlined needed reforms of the Act. Recorded 1/11/2007
Time: 50:58. File Size: 17.5 MB (MP3)
NEC Podcast #1: The Ratchet Mortgage
National Economists Club
P.O. Box 19281
Washington, DC 20036